长兴岛经济区道路交通事故影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 19:54

本文选题：道路交通事故影响因素 + 累积Logistic模型　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着改革开放我国经济的飞速发展,交通运输业的发展也蒸蒸日上,然而在全国经济向好各地区机动车保有量持续增加的同时,道路交通事故的发生率也在持续增长。城市新区是近年来我国不断开发建设的功能区,基本处于城乡过渡期,其道路规划不合理、道路交通安全管理落后、交通安全宣传不到位等问题普遍存在,也使城市新区的道路交通事故发生率一直居高不下。道路交通事故的发生,轻则造成车辆财物的损失,重则引起相关人员伤亡,不仅给个人造成伤害,也给家庭带来不幸,甚至影响经济社会的发展和稳定。因此研究道路交通事故的特点,分析其影响因素,进而对道路交通事故进行预防,改善道路交通事故多发的现状,具有十分重要的意义。本论文以城市新区长兴岛经济区为研究对象,选取长兴岛经济区2009-2014年期间的交通事故数据为研究样本,通过调查分析法、文献析出法等,找出长兴岛经济区道路交通事故的影响因素,并且分成交通参与人、交通运行车辆、交通运行道路、交通运行环境四个方面进行分类研究,并运用定量分析法SPSS20.0建立长兴岛经济区道路交通事故严重程度-影响因素分析的累积Logistic模型,找出主要影响因素。根据找出的长兴岛经济区道路交通事故的影响因素,尤其是根据模型分析出的主要影响因素,对长兴岛经济区道路交通事故进行预防,为改善其他城市新区道路交通事故状况提供决策参考。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's reform and opening up economy, the development of transportation industry is also booming. However, while the national economy continues to increase the number of motor vehicles in various areas, the incidence of road traffic accidents is also increasing. In recent years, the new urban area is a functional area which has been continuously developed and constructed in our country. It is basically in the transitional period of urban and rural areas. The problems such as unreasonable road planning, backward management of road traffic safety, inadequate traffic safety propaganda, etc., are common in urban and rural areas. Also causes the city new area the road traffic accident rate to be high all the time. The occurrence of road traffic accident, light will cause the loss of vehicle property, heavy will cause related personnel casualties, not only to the individual injury, but also to the family unfortunate, and even affect the economic and social development and stability. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the characteristics of road traffic accidents, analyze the influencing factors, prevent road traffic accidents and improve the current situation of road traffic accidents. This paper takes Changxing Island Economic Zone as the research object, selects the traffic accident data of Changxing Island Economic Zone from 2009-2014 as the research sample, through the investigation analysis method, the literature precipitation method, etc. Find out the influencing factors of road traffic accidents in Changxing Island Economic Zone, and divide them into four aspects: traffic participants, traffic running vehicles, traffic running roads, and traffic running environment. Using the quantitative analysis method SPSS 20.0, a cumulative logistic model was established to analyze the severity of road traffic accidents in Changxing Island Economic Zone, and the main influencing factors were found out. According to the factors that affect the road traffic accidents in Changxing Island Economic Zone, especially the main factors analyzed by the model, the road traffic accidents in Changxing Island Economic Zone are prevented. To improve the situation of road traffic accidents in other urban new areas to provide decision-making reference.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.31;D631.5

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