基于感知成本的低收入人群通勤交通方式选择研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 08:16

本文选题：低收入人群 + 出行特征　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文依托于国家自然科学基金项目《大城市低收入人群活动-出行模式与感知成本作用机理研究》,聚焦大城市低收入人群,对低收入人群感知成本与通勤出行交通方式选择作用机理展开了研究,从低收入人群感知成本数据库建立入手,针对低收入人群通勤出行交通方式,建立基于感知成本的通勤出行交通方式选择模型。通过模型的建立,可以分析影响低收入人群通勤出行交通方式选择的主要因素,并从这些因素着手,提出了保障低收入人群出行需求以及引导低收入人群选择绿色交通出行的策略,为交通系统资源优化配置、建立健全低收入人群出行保障机制提供理论基础。首先,本文采用定量(比例法)和定性(低收入人群一般特征)相结合的方法界定低收入人群,阐述了出行感知成本的内涵,利用获得的抚顺、南京、湖州三个城市的数据,构建了包括低收入人群个人家庭属性、出行属性、交通服务属性、区位属性、成本敏感度五个方面的出行感知成本数据库。其次,对抚顺、南京、湖州三个城市低收入人群个人属性、家庭属性、出行特征等方面进行了统计比较分析。在此基础上,分析了低收入人群通勤出行交通方式选择与出行感知成本数据库各因素的相关性。然后,阐述了交通方式选择模型的基础理论—随机效用理论,确立了本文使用的模型-多项logistic模型,分析了模型的参数估计方法—最大似然估计法以及常见的模型检验方法。在此基础上,确定低收入人群通勤出行交通方式选择MNL模型的构建步骤。基于本文的研究目的,确定了模型交通方式选择肢,选择了影响低收入人群通勤出行的特性变量,通过SPSS软件,对模型进行参数标定,得出低收入人群通勤出行交通方式选择效用函数。最后,依据建模分析结果,从影响因素着手,研究低收入人群出行保障和引导策略。提出了公交服务质量改善、慢行交通改善、非绿色交通方式限制三个方面策略,不仅保障了低收入出行的可达性、经济性、舒适性,而且可以引导低收入人群选择低碳绿色的出行方式(慢行+公共交通)。
[Abstract]:This paper is based on the National Natural Science Foundation project, "activities of low-income people in big cities-study on the mechanism of travel patterns and perceived costs", focusing on low-income people in large cities. Based on the research on the mechanism of perception cost and commuting mode selection among low-income people, the paper starts with the establishment of the database of perceived cost of low-income people, aiming at the commuting mode of low-income people. A model of commuting mode selection based on perceived cost is established. Through the establishment of the model, we can analyze the main factors that affect the choice of commuting modes for low-income people, and start from these factors. The strategies of ensuring the travel demand of the low-income group and guiding the low-income people to choose the green traffic travel are put forward, which provide the theoretical basis for optimizing the allocation of transportation system resources and establishing and perfecting the travel guarantee mechanism of the low-income people. First of all, this paper uses quantitative (proportional method) and qualitative (general characteristics of low-income people) to define low-income population, expounds the connotation of travel perceived cost, using the obtained data of Fushun, Nanjing and Huzhou. This paper constructs a travel perception cost database which includes five aspects: personal family attribute, travel attribute, transportation service attribute, location attribute and cost sensitivity. Secondly, the personal attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics of low income population in Fushun, Nanjing and Huzhou are analyzed statistically. On this basis, the correlation between commuting mode selection and travel perception cost database is analyzed. Then, the basic theory of traffic mode selection model, stochastic utility theory, is introduced, and the model-multi-term logistic model is established. The parameter estimation method of the model, the maximum likelihood estimation method, and the common model checking method are analyzed. On this basis, the construction steps of MNL model are determined. Based on the research purpose of this paper, the model traffic mode selection limb is determined, and the characteristic variables that affect the commuting of low-income people are selected. The parameters of the model are calibrated by SPSS software. The utility function of commuting mode selection for low income people is obtained. Finally, based on the results of modeling and analysis, the travel security and guidance strategies of low income population are studied from the perspective of influencing factors. Three strategies are put forward to improve the quality of public transport service, slow traffic and non-green mode of transportation, which not only guarantee the accessibility, economy and comfort of low-income travel, but also improve the quality of public transport service. And it can lead low-income people to choose low-carbon green travel (slow public transport).
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491

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