基于面板数据的城市公共交通经济贡献性分析

发布时间：2018-07-07 16:12

本文选题：城市交通 + 经济贡献性　；参考：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2017年05期

【摘要】：为定量考察公共交通对城市经济的贡献性,本文从固定资产投资、市辖区人口密度和就业人口数等方面,分别建立与公共交通发展指标的面板数据模型,并以江苏为例进行了实证分析.研究表明:公共交通能够显著拉动城市固定资产投资,公交初期阶段的发展模式应以加快完善路网为主,相对成熟阶段则应以运力投放为重点;公共交通对城市人口空间分布表现出显著分散效应,并且仅当城镇化发展到一定水平之后,公交客运总量才产生显著作用;公交发展水平越成熟,其对就业的促进作用越高.公交运力并不直接影响城市就业和引导城市人口分散.地铁开通对固定资产投资的促进作用最为明显,其次是就业的拉动作用.
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively investigate the contribution of public transport to urban economy, this paper establishes a panel data model of public transport development indicators from the aspects of fixed asset investment, population density and employment population in municipal districts. And take Jiangsu as an example to carry on the demonstration analysis. The research shows that public transport can significantly stimulate the investment of fixed assets in cities, the development mode of public transport in the initial stage should be to speed up the improvement of road network, and the emphasis should be put on carrying capacity in relatively mature stage. Public transport has a significant dispersion effect on the spatial distribution of urban population, and only when urbanization develops to a certain level, the total amount of public transport passenger transport plays a significant role; the more mature the level of public transport development, the higher the promotion of employment. Public transport capacity does not directly affect urban employment and guide urban population dispersion. Subway opening on the promotion of investment in fixed assets is the most obvious, followed by the role of employment.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学交通学院;东南大学成贤学院;南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51208256) 江苏省高校自然科学研究项目资助(14KJB580001) 江苏省交通运输科技项目(2017X01)~~
【分类号】：F572.88;U12

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