基于势能的山东半岛城市群城际客流需求预测模型
发布时间：2018-07-17 08:45
【摘要】：针对传统四阶段法在我国城市群中存在调查范围广、数据获取难的现状,以山东半岛城市群中几个经济与交通联系紧密的城市为例,在不进行大规模OD调查的前提下,通过端点城市的统计指标进行相关分析、主成份和因子分析,采用直接建模法进行城际客流需求预测模型研究。研究结果表明,影响城际出行量的指标是人口和经济指标,代表了城市区位势能,适用于城际出行预测的模型是空间相互作用模型。以空间相互作用模型家族中威尔逊基于最大熵的引力模型为基础,建立了基于区位势能的城市群城际客流需求预测模型,根据样本城市群中城市之间的出行量进行了模型参数的标定和误差分析。
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the traditional four-stage method has a wide scope of investigation and is difficult to obtain data in the urban agglomeration of our country, taking several cities in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as an example, without carrying out large-scale OD survey, Through the correlation analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis of the endpoint city, the direct modeling method is used to study the intercity passenger demand forecasting model. The results show that the index of intercity travel is population and economy, which represents the potential energy of urban location, and the model suitable for intercity travel prediction is spatial interaction model. Based on Wilson's gravitation model based on maximum entropy in the family of spatial interaction models, a forecast model of intercity passenger flow demand of urban agglomeration is established based on location potential energy. The calibration and error analysis of the model parameters are carried out according to the travel volume between cities in the sample urban agglomeration.
【作者单位】： 山东建筑大学山东高校重点实验室道路与交通工程实验室;山东建筑大学建筑城规学院;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划,项目编号2012BAJ15B05 国家留学基金资助
【分类号】：U491.1
本文编号：2129863
[Abstract]:In view of the fact that the traditional four-stage method has a wide scope of investigation and is difficult to obtain data in the urban agglomeration of our country, taking several cities in Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as an example, without carrying out large-scale OD survey, Through the correlation analysis, principal component analysis and factor analysis of the endpoint city, the direct modeling method is used to study the intercity passenger demand forecasting model. The results show that the index of intercity travel is population and economy, which represents the potential energy of urban location, and the model suitable for intercity travel prediction is spatial interaction model. Based on Wilson's gravitation model based on maximum entropy in the family of spatial interaction models, a forecast model of intercity passenger flow demand of urban agglomeration is established based on location potential energy. The calibration and error analysis of the model parameters are carried out according to the travel volume between cities in the sample urban agglomeration.
【作者单位】： 山东建筑大学山东高校重点实验室道路与交通工程实验室;山东建筑大学建筑城规学院;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划,项目编号2012BAJ15B05 国家留学基金资助
【分类号】：U491.1
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