前景理论下路径选择行为参考点选取问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 12:13

【摘要】：路径选择行为方面的研究一直是交通行为研究领域的热点问题,现有研究多基于确定性的出行环境,同时认为出行者是“完全理性”的。前景理论考虑出行者在出行决策过程中的心理特征,并且假设决策者是具有有限理性的个体,近些年来已经广泛应用于路径选择行为研究中。作为判断收益和损失的分界点,参考点如何定义以及取值受到诸多研究者的关注。参考点的选取会直接影响到最终的选择结果,因此需对参考点的形成、参考点位置的确定进行全面系统的研究。论文阐述了基于前景理论的出行者路径选择过程,揭示了个体在进行决策的过程中存在参考点依赖的现象,然后从参考点形成入手,分析了影响个体参考点选取的多种因素,并对参考点的选取进行了灵敏性分析,通过算例发现参考点设定的不同会导致前景值计算结果发生反转。在此基础上,考虑参考点设定的不同,设计了单次路径选择实验,并重新定义了基于问卷调查的参考点取值,通过比较不同情境下模型预测能力,评估多种参考点设置方法的优劣。结果表明,相较于传统的设定方法,改进的参考点设定方法对选择结果的预测能力有所提升。论文末章基于前景理论和贝叶斯估计构建了累积出行经验下的路径选择模型,并且分析了出行者在多日出行过程中路径选择的特点,以此设计了路径选择实验,通过调查数据分析了参考点的更新变化规律。研究表明出行者的风险态度和出行经验因素对参考点调整的幅度影响显著。本文将理论研究与实验研究相结合,尝试运用行为学理论来解释选择行为的内在机理,通过对个体在不同条件下的路径选择的行为进行分析和建模,全面的对前景理论中参考点设置这一热点问题进行了实证性的研究,并给出了合理的参考点选取方法。文章结尾提出了尚未完善以及需要继续深入研究的问题,对未来相关研究提供了方向。
[Abstract]:The research on route choice behavior has always been a hot topic in the field of traffic behavior. Most of the existing researches are based on deterministic travel environment, and the travelers are considered to be "completely rational". The prospect theory considers the psychological characteristics of travelers in the travel decision-making process and assumes that the decision makers are individuals with limited rationality and has been widely used in the research of path choice behavior in recent years. How to define and value reference points, which is the boundary point for judging profit and loss, has attracted many researchers' attention. The selection of reference points will directly affect the final selection results, so it is necessary to make a comprehensive and systematic study on the formation of reference points and the determination of reference points. This paper expounds the path selection process of travelers based on foreground theory, reveals the phenomenon of reference point dependence in the process of individual decision-making, and then analyzes the various factors that affect the selection of individual reference points, starting with the formation of reference points. The sensitivity of the reference point selection is analyzed. It is found that the difference of the reference point setting will result in the inversion of the calculation result. On this basis, considering the different setting of reference points, the single path selection experiment is designed, and the reference point value based on questionnaire is redefined, and the prediction ability of the model is compared in different situations. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various reference point setting methods. The results show that compared with the traditional setting method, the improved reference point setting method improves the prediction ability of the selection results. In the last chapter, based on prospect theory and Bayesian estimation, a path selection model based on cumulative travel experience is constructed, and the characteristics of path selection in multi-day travel process are analyzed. According to the survey data, the change law of reference points is analyzed. The results show that the risk attitude and travel experience of travelers have a significant impact on the range of reference point adjustment. In this paper, theoretical and experimental studies are combined to try to explain the intrinsic mechanism of choice behavior by using behavioral theory, and to analyze and model the behavior of individual path selection under different conditions. In this paper, the problem of reference point setting in foreground theory is studied in detail, and a reasonable method of reference point selection is given. At the end of the paper, the problems that are not perfect and need to be further studied are put forward, which provide a direction for future research.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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