面向服务的综合客运枢纽可靠性选址与服务策略研究

发布时间：2018-07-27 14:44

【摘要】：随着综合交通运输体系的高速发展,其节点——综合客运枢纽，在政府政策和科学研究等方面都得到了大力支持和广泛关注。因为其具有建设费用高、周期长、服务面大等特点,为贯彻执行“以人为本”的服务宗旨,不能仅仅考虑单环竹的服务优化,而应从长期效益出发,统筹规划、建设、运营和退役等各环节,以全生命周期的整体最优作为管理目标,即,构建面向服务的全生命周期优化管理机制。目前,综合客运枢纽在选址和服务策略制定时依然主要靠静态的经验估计等方法,无论是在工程实践还是理论研究中都存在着一些不足。本文对国内外综合客运枢纽的规划、建设、运营等全生命周期各个环节的文献研究做了详细的综述,认为既有研究的薄弱方面要在于：较少有从全生命周期角度对综合客运枢纽的服务网络进行研究；选址时较少考虑到枢纽失效的可能性；对乘客与管理者的博弈关系认识不清楚等问题,解决这些问题可为提升新建枢纽体系的可靠性和既有枢纽的服务水平等提供一定的科学依据,为实现乘客与交通的和谐发展提供理论和技术保障。本文的主要工作如下：首先描述了在枢纽失效且不完全信息情景下的乘客应对机制,提出了一种新的访问策略,即,任何情境下,每个顾客都只会按照提前确定的访问次序来依次访问指定的枢纽站,并会停留在第一个遇到可获得服务的枢纽,或者遍访无果后,放弃出行服务并接受惩罚费用。该种访问策略本质上是一种试错(trial-and-error)策略,本文将之命名为“基于有限深度的次序访问策略”。基于该访问策略,本文将不完全信息下的可靠性选址问题构建成一个高度精简的整数规划模型。与传统选址模型不同,本模型的决策变量并不只是确定建设枢纽的位置和数量,还要确定每个顾客的访问次序,以获得最优的目标值。其次,为了高效求解不完全信息下可靠性选址模型,本文构建了基于拉格朗日松弛算法的求解方法,并用实例数据进行了案例分析。结果表明,该方法虽然只是求得次优解,却可以在合理的时间内,得到较好的结果,并且优于常用的优化软件CPLEX和Gurobi,具有较高的有效性。案例分析不仅验证了模型和算法的实用性,并且得到了一些对管理有益的建议：考虑到枢纽失效因素时,为了提高服务的可靠性,优化方案会呈现较为密集的选址布局；乘客未必被分配到最近的枢纽站,反而可能优先选择也许距离较远但密集度较高的枢纽点：备用枢纽站的存在,极大的提高了服务可靠性和客运系统的有效性和鲁棒性。因此,该模型可以有效的增强基础设施系统的可靠性：即使信息网络全部或者部分随枢纽失效而失效时,该优化布局方案仍然可以增强综合交通枢纽体系的可靠性。这种选址思路可以有效地提高综合客运枢纽的服务水平,从而体现了“以人为本”的服务思想。最后,在运营阶段,为了从全生命周期的角度提升服务质量,本文还构建了基于博弈的服务策略优化模型。为了制定有针对性的服务策略,必须首先明确枢纽是处于正常运营状态还是突发事件状态,为此本文提出了“聚合态”的概念,确保客运枢纽实时状态的准确度量和表现；根据不同的时空资源配置和枢纽实时状态所处的范围,构建了基于管理者和乘客Stackelberg博弈的双层策略优化模型：考虑到管理者希望性能最优、成本最小和乘客希望自己的行走成本最低的目标,最终达到二者都满意的平衡,确定此时最优的服务策略；并用遗传算法进行求解,通过算例验证了模型和算法的有效性和实用性。服务策略优化模型可以促使管理者换位思考,从而制定更加合理、有效的服务措施。本文提出的模型可以在一定程度上增强综合交通系统可靠性和稳定性,从而更好的服务于人民群众,体现“以人为本”的服务宗旨,并在某种程度上增强了社会的稳定性,有助于提高社会福祉。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the comprehensive transportation system, its node, the comprehensive passenger transport hub, has been strongly supported and widely concerned in the government policy and scientific research. Because of its high construction cost, long cycle and large service face, it can not only consider the single ring bamboo for the purpose of carrying out the "human based" service. The service optimization should be based on the long-term benefits, planning, construction, operation and decommissioning of the whole life cycle as a management target, that is, to build a service oriented full life cycle optimization management mechanism.
At present, the location and service strategy of the integrated passenger transport hub are still mainly based on the static experience estimation methods, and there are some shortcomings in both the engineering practice and the theoretical research. This paper makes a detailed review of the literature research on the whole life cycle of the planning, construction and operation of the comprehensive passenger transport hub at home and abroad. It is believed that the weak aspects of the research should be: less research on the service network of the comprehensive passenger transport hub from the point of full life cycle, less consideration of the possibility of the failure of the hub in the location of the site, the unclear understanding of the game relationship between the passengers and the managers, and the solution of these problems to improve the reliability of the new hub system. It provides a scientific basis for sex and the service level of existing hub, so as to provide theoretical and technical guarantee for the harmonious development of passenger and traffic.
The main work of this article is as follows:
First, it describes the passenger response mechanism under the hub failure and incomplete information scenario, and proposes a new access strategy. In any situation, each customer will only visit the designated hub according to the predetermined order of access, and will stay at the first meeting of a hub for service, or after a visit without a fruit, This kind of access strategy is essentially a trial and error (trial-and-error) strategy, which is named "order access strategy based on limited depth". Based on this access strategy, this paper constructs a highly streamlined integer programming model under incomplete information. The traditional location model is different. The decision variable of this model is not only to determine the location and quantity of the construction hub, but also to determine the order of each customer to obtain the optimal target value.
Secondly, in order to efficiently solve the reliability location model under incomplete information, this paper constructs a solution method based on Lagrange relaxation algorithm, and uses case data to carry out a case analysis. The results show that the method can get better results in a reasonable time and better than the commonly used optimization, although it only obtains the suboptimal solution. CPLEX and Gurobi are highly effective. The case analysis not only validates the practicability of the model and algorithm, but also gives some useful suggestions for management. In order to improve the reliability of the service, the optimization scheme will present a more intensive location layout in order to improve the reliability of the hub; passengers may not be assigned to the nearest hub. Instead, it may give priority to a hub that may be far away but more dense: the existence of a standby hub greatly improves the reliability of the service and the effectiveness and robustness of the passenger transport system. Therefore, the model can effectively enhance the reliability of the infrastructure system, even if the whole or part of the information network is ineffective with the hub. In the case of failure, the optimal layout scheme can still enhance the reliability of the integrated transportation hub system, which can effectively improve the service level of the comprehensive passenger transport hub, and thus embody the "people-oriented" service idea.
Finally, in order to improve the service quality from the full life cycle, this paper also constructs a game based service strategy optimization model. In order to formulate a targeted service strategy, it is necessary to first make clear that the hub is in the normal operation state or the emergency state, so the concept of "aggregate state" is proposed. The accurate measurement and performance of the real time state of the passenger transport hub is guaranteed. According to the different space-time resource allocation and the scope of the real-time state of the hub, a double strategy optimization model based on the manager and the passenger Stackelberg game is constructed. Considering that the manager hopes the performance is optimal, the cost is the smallest and the passenger wants the lowest walking cost of the passenger. The goal is to achieve a satisfactory balance between the two, and determine the best service strategy at this time, and use the genetic algorithm to solve the problem. Through an example, the validity and practicability of the model and algorithm are verified. The service strategy optimization model can promote the managers to think in transposition and make more reasonable and effective service measures.
The model proposed in this paper can enhance the reliability and stability of the integrated transportation system to a certain extent, so as to better serve the people, reflect the "people-oriented" service purpose, and to some extent, enhance the stability of the society, and help to improve the social well-being.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U115

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