基于层次分析和分组变权的隧道施工风险评估
发布时间：2018-07-28 08:00
【摘要】：随着我国综合国力的不断增强,隧道的建设越来越多,然而由于隧道工程隐蔽性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,隧道工程事故屡屡发生,且后果严重。为减少施工中的人员伤亡和经济损失,保证隧道的安全施工,对隧道施工过程进行风险评价尤为重要。本文结合已有资料和文献对事故发生机理和风险分析的基本理论进行分析,从而确定引起事故发生的因素,为风险评价指标体系的建立提供方法和依据,建立较为全面的隧道施工风险评价的指标体系。传统的层次分析法在隧道施工风险评价过程中具有定性分析和定量分析相结合的特点,同时针对层析分析法在确定风险指标权重值所存在的离散性和不均衡性,本文采用分组变权的方法对由专家调查问卷所得到的风险指标常权重值进行聚类分析,利用分组变权法计算分组变权系数值。从而满足了隧道施工风险评价模型对风险指标均衡性的要求。最后以中天山隧道为工程背景,采用上述方法对隧道施工过程中存在的风险进行分析评价,建立隧道施工风险评价模型。计算结果表明,对层次分析法中的指标权重值采用分组变权进行改进可以更好体现风险评价模型对指标间均衡性的要求,使风险评价结果更具真实性、合理性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous enhancement of our country's comprehensive national strength, more and more tunnels are built. However, due to the characteristics of concealment, complexity and uncertainty of tunnel engineering, tunnel engineering accidents often occur and the consequences are serious. In order to reduce the casualties and economic losses and ensure the safe construction of the tunnel, it is very important to evaluate the risk of the tunnel construction process. In this paper, the mechanism of accident and the basic theory of risk analysis are analyzed in combination with the existing data and literature, so as to determine the factors causing the accident, and provide the method and basis for the establishment of the risk evaluation index system. Establish a more comprehensive tunnel construction risk evaluation index system. The traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has the characteristics of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in the process of tunnel construction risk evaluation. At the same time, aiming at the discreteness and unbalance of chromatographic analysis in determining the weight value of risk index, In this paper, the method of grouping variable weight is used to analyze the constant weight value of risk index obtained from expert questionnaire, and the group variable weight method is used to calculate the value of grouping variable weight coefficient. Thus meet the tunnel construction risk evaluation model for the risk index balance requirements. Finally, taking Zhongtianshan Tunnel as the engineering background, the risk of tunnel construction is analyzed and evaluated by using the above method, and the risk evaluation model of tunnel construction is established. The calculation results show that the improvement of index weight value by grouping variable weight in AHP can better reflect the requirement of equilibrium between indexes in the risk assessment model and make the risk evaluation result more authentic and reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1
本文编号：2149433
[Abstract]:With the continuous enhancement of our country's comprehensive national strength, more and more tunnels are built. However, due to the characteristics of concealment, complexity and uncertainty of tunnel engineering, tunnel engineering accidents often occur and the consequences are serious. In order to reduce the casualties and economic losses and ensure the safe construction of the tunnel, it is very important to evaluate the risk of the tunnel construction process. In this paper, the mechanism of accident and the basic theory of risk analysis are analyzed in combination with the existing data and literature, so as to determine the factors causing the accident, and provide the method and basis for the establishment of the risk evaluation index system. Establish a more comprehensive tunnel construction risk evaluation index system. The traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has the characteristics of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in the process of tunnel construction risk evaluation. At the same time, aiming at the discreteness and unbalance of chromatographic analysis in determining the weight value of risk index, In this paper, the method of grouping variable weight is used to analyze the constant weight value of risk index obtained from expert questionnaire, and the group variable weight method is used to calculate the value of grouping variable weight coefficient. Thus meet the tunnel construction risk evaluation model for the risk index balance requirements. Finally, taking Zhongtianshan Tunnel as the engineering background, the risk of tunnel construction is analyzed and evaluated by using the above method, and the risk evaluation model of tunnel construction is established. The calculation results show that the improvement of index weight value by grouping variable weight in AHP can better reflect the requirement of equilibrium between indexes in the risk assessment model and make the risk evaluation result more authentic and reasonable.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 王立军;;高速公路山岭隧道设计阶段安全风险评估[J];交通标准化;2012年24期
，本文编号：2149433
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