基于Monte Carlo模拟的公路网络震后连通性与通行时间分析

发布时间：2018-08-01 10:47

【摘要】：为评价公路网络系统震后功能保障能力,基于Monte Carlo(MC)模拟方法建立了路网震后连通可靠度和交通量通行时间分析模型。采用地震易损性曲线表示道路和桥梁的地震破坏状态及其对应的概率;采用道路和桥梁破坏状态对应的连通性、行车速度、通行能力折减系数,表示道路和桥梁结构地震破坏产生的路段通行能力下降;考虑道路和桥梁结构地震破坏不确定性,采用MC方法模拟路段通行能力下降后的路网震后功能。在每次MC抽样计算中,采用宽度优先搜索算法判别路网连通性,采用增量分配算法进行路网静态交通量分配,得到路网整体通行时间。以多次MC模拟计算的路网连通可靠度和通行时间均值,表示路网的震后通行状态,通过算例分析了路网连通性和通行时间分析模型的特点及其适用性。结果表明:路段震后通行能力下降是造成震后路网整体通行时间增加的主要原因,低连通可靠度节点的震后通行时间较高,增加路网交通流量服务供给点(源点)可以提升路网的震后保障能力;连通可靠度分析模型适用于路网参数较少情况下的初步分析;交通流量通行时间分析模型,考虑了路段的交通流通行属性和路网OD交通量参数,可提供较为精确的分析结果。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the function support ability of highway network system after earthquake, the model of reliability and traffic flow time analysis after earthquake was established based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. The seismic vulnerability curve is used to express the seismic failure state and the corresponding probability of the road and bridge, and the connectivity, driving speed and capacity reduction coefficient of the road and bridge failure state are adopted. Considering the uncertainty of seismic damage of road and bridge structure, MC method is used to simulate the function of road network after earthquake. In each MC sampling calculation, the width first search algorithm is used to judge the road network connectivity, and the incremental allocation algorithm is used to allocate the static traffic volume of the road network, and the overall traffic time of the road network is obtained. The road network connectivity reliability and traffic time mean calculated by MC are used to express the traffic state after the earthquake. The characteristics and applicability of the road network connectivity and traffic time analysis model are analyzed by an example. The results show that the decrease of post-earthquake capacity is the main reason for the increase of the overall passage time of the post-earthquake road network, and the post-earthquake passage time of the low-connected reliability node is higher. Increasing the supply point (source point) of network traffic flow service can enhance the post-earthquake support ability of road network; the connectivity reliability analysis model is suitable for the preliminary analysis of road network with fewer parameters; the traffic flow traffic time analysis model, The traffic flow properties and OD traffic parameters of road network are taken into account, which can provide more accurate analysis results.
【作者单位】：北京工业大学城市与工程安全减灾教育部重点实验室;中国地震局地球物理研究所;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL05B05)
【分类号】：U491.13

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