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多重模糊条件下的水上服务区类型决策

发布时间:2018-08-03 18:40
【摘要】:针对水上服务区类型选择的多重模糊性问题,提出基于模糊贝叶斯的决策方法,根据文献确定水上服务区选择的影响因素和决策准则,建立四层决策框架;根据各服务区的供需关系对影响因素进行模糊化,利用改进的IF-THEN规则建立影响因素和输入变量之间、影响因素和决策准则之间的推理关系;利用贝叶斯网络对推理规则库进行转换,通过计算贝叶斯网络的边缘概率获得决策方案值;对各节点的决策状态赋予效用值及权重,获得各水上服务区类型的综合得分。将该方法应用于芜申运河宜兴水上服务区的类型选择,结果表明,该方法能够很好地实现水上服务区的类型选择。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the multiple fuzziness of water service area selection, a decision method based on fuzzy Bayes is put forward. According to the literature, the influencing factors and decision criteria of water service area selection are determined, and a four layer decision frame is established. According to the relationship between supply and demand of each service area, the influence factors are fuzzy, and the reasoning relationship between the influence factors and input variables, the influence factors and the decision criteria is established by using the improved IF-THEN rule. The inference rule base is transformed by Bayesian network, the decision scheme value is obtained by calculating the edge probability of Bayesian network, and the utility value and weight are assigned to the decision state of each node, and the comprehensive score of each type of water service area is obtained. The method is applied to the type selection of the water service area in Yixing of Wushen Canal. The results show that the method can realize the type selection of the water service area very well.
【作者单位】: 武汉理工大学航运学院;武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室;武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心;
【基金】:国家科技支撑计划(2015BAG20B05) 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20130143120014)
【分类号】:U697

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