高速公路交通事故起数预测方法研究
发布时间：2018-08-08 16:09
【摘要】：近年来我国高速公路的快速发展,大力促进了我国的经济发展和社会进步。但与此同时,我国高速公路居高不下的交通事故起数以及它的高伤亡率也给社会和人民造成了巨大损失。识别高速公路交通事故的突出诱导因素,分析高速公路交通事故起数与道路条件和交通条件等影响因素之间的关系,可以深入剖析高速公路交通事故的形成机理,从而可以及时地、有针对性地采取相应的预防对策和改善措施,最终达到减少高速公路交通事故起数、提高高速公路整体安全性的目的。本文结合实际的科研项目,对高速公路交通事故起数预测方法进行了深入研究。从人、车辆、道路和环境四个方面系统地分析高速公路交通事故的影响因素,然后针对某高速公路(K22+690~K72+690),采集其特定时段内的事故数据、交通流量数据和道路线形数据,选取用于构建交通事故起数预测模型的潜在变量。在总结和归纳现有研究成果的前提下,构建了高速公路交通事故起数预测模型的理论体系。分别采用负二项回归模型、广义负二项回归模型、随机效应负二项回归模型和零堆积负二项回归模型构建高速公路交通事故起数预测模型,分析高速公路交通事故起数与道路条件和交通条件之间的关系,并从模型的拟合优度检验和预测准确性检验两个方面,选取相应的检验指标,对比分析广义负二项回归模型、随机效应负二项回归模型和零堆积负二项回归模型与负二项回归模型的优劣,然后采用弹性分析的方法,定量分析显著影响因素对高速公路交通事故起数的影响程度。最后,针对特定的研究对象某高速公路(K22+690~K72+690),从道路条件和交通条件两个方面选取候选自变量,根据路段划分方法的不同,分别从定长法和不定长法两个角度,对所建立的交通事故起数预测模型进行实证性分析研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of expressway in China has greatly promoted the economic development and social progress of our country. But at the same time, the high number of traffic accidents and its high casualty rate have caused great losses to the society and people. Identifying the prominent inducing factors of expressway traffic accidents and analyzing the relationship between the number of freeway traffic accidents and the influence factors such as road conditions and traffic conditions can deeply analyze the formation mechanism of expressway traffic accidents. In order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve the overall safety of freeway, the corresponding preventive measures and improvement measures can be taken in time and pertinently. Combining with the actual scientific research project, this paper makes a deep research on the prediction method of the initial number of expressway traffic accidents. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of expressway traffic accidents from the aspects of people, vehicles, roads and environment, and then collects the accident data, traffic flow data and road alignment data of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690) during a certain period of time. The potential variables used to build the traffic accident initial prediction model are selected. On the premise of summarizing and summarizing the existing research results, the theoretical system of expressway traffic accident starting number prediction model is constructed. Using negative binomial regression model, generalized negative binomial regression model, random effect negative binomial regression model and zero pile negative binomial regression model to construct expressway traffic accident initial prediction model, respectively. This paper analyzes the relationship between the initial number of expressway traffic accidents and road conditions and traffic conditions, and selects the corresponding test indexes from two aspects: the goodness of fit test of the model and the accuracy test of prediction, and analyzes the generalized negative binomial regression model by comparing and analyzing the generalized negative binomial regression model. The random effect negative binomial regression model, the zero pile negative binomial regression model and the negative binomial regression model are used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the influence factors on the number of expressway traffic accidents by using the elastic analysis method. Finally, according to the specific research object of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690), the candidate independent variables are selected from two aspects of road condition and traffic condition. The established traffic accident initial prediction model is studied by empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.3
本文编号：2172320
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of expressway in China has greatly promoted the economic development and social progress of our country. But at the same time, the high number of traffic accidents and its high casualty rate have caused great losses to the society and people. Identifying the prominent inducing factors of expressway traffic accidents and analyzing the relationship between the number of freeway traffic accidents and the influence factors such as road conditions and traffic conditions can deeply analyze the formation mechanism of expressway traffic accidents. In order to reduce the number of traffic accidents and improve the overall safety of freeway, the corresponding preventive measures and improvement measures can be taken in time and pertinently. Combining with the actual scientific research project, this paper makes a deep research on the prediction method of the initial number of expressway traffic accidents. This paper systematically analyzes the influencing factors of expressway traffic accidents from the aspects of people, vehicles, roads and environment, and then collects the accident data, traffic flow data and road alignment data of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690) during a certain period of time. The potential variables used to build the traffic accident initial prediction model are selected. On the premise of summarizing and summarizing the existing research results, the theoretical system of expressway traffic accident starting number prediction model is constructed. Using negative binomial regression model, generalized negative binomial regression model, random effect negative binomial regression model and zero pile negative binomial regression model to construct expressway traffic accident initial prediction model, respectively. This paper analyzes the relationship between the initial number of expressway traffic accidents and road conditions and traffic conditions, and selects the corresponding test indexes from two aspects: the goodness of fit test of the model and the accuracy test of prediction, and analyzes the generalized negative binomial regression model by comparing and analyzing the generalized negative binomial regression model. The random effect negative binomial regression model, the zero pile negative binomial regression model and the negative binomial regression model are used to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of the influence factors on the number of expressway traffic accidents by using the elastic analysis method. Finally, according to the specific research object of a certain expressway (K22 690~K72 690), the candidate independent variables are selected from two aspects of road condition and traffic condition. The established traffic accident initial prediction model is studied by empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.3
【相似文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 张宏璐;高速公路交通事故起数预测方法研究[D];长安大学;2015年
2 徐业峰;负二项回归模型的统计推断[D];扬州大学;2014年
，本文编号：2172320
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