北极LNG运输航线的交通分配问题研究

发布时间：2018-08-15 16:31

【摘要】：随着陆上油气储量的日渐衰减和北冰洋海冰的不断消融,越来越多的国家着手对北极地区的资源进行开发.以北极地区的LNG运输为研究对象,考虑过度分配造成的海运运输航线的拥堵,利用BRP函数产生拥堵成本,以运输成本,拥堵成本及风险成本之和最小为目标,建立LNG运输航线的交通分配模型.从全部需求量同时分配的角度,以中国政府为决策主体,由苏伊士运河航线、好望角航线以及北极东北航线构成的海运网络,利用Frank-Wolfe算法进行求解,并用CPLEX软件验证其有效性.结果表明:未来将分担北极资源运出运量36%左右.在油价的下调和苏伊士运河高额通行费用的影响下,好望角航线的优势也开始显现,将分担全部运量的28%左右.
[Abstract]:With the decline of onshore oil and gas reserves and the melting of Arctic sea ice, more and more countries are developing Arctic resources. Taking the LNG transportation in the Arctic as the research object, considering the congestion of the shipping routes caused by over-distribution, using the BRP function to generate the congestion cost, the goal is to minimize the sum of the transportation cost, congestion cost and risk cost. The traffic assignment model of LNG transportation route is established. From the point of view of simultaneous distribution of total demand, the seaborne network composed of Suez Canal route, Cape of good Hope route and northeast Arctic route is solved by Frank-Wolfe algorithm and verified by CPLEX software. The results show that the Arctic resources will be shared by about 36% in the future. Under the influence of lower oil prices and high Suez Canal fares, the Cape of good Hope route has also begun to take advantage, sharing about 28 percent of all traffic.
【作者单位】：上海海事大学物流科学与工程研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471110,61540045) 上海市科委科研计划项目(14DZ2280200);上海市科委科技创新行动计划项目(14170501500,16DZ1201402) 上海市重点学科资助项目(J50604) 陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2015D060) 上海海事大学研究生学术新人培育计划项目(YXR2016047)
【分类号】：U697.1

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