港口土地利用变化的CA-Markov模型研究

发布时间：2018-08-27 12:20

【摘要】：港口的发展促进了沿海地区的城市化进程,拉动了区域的经济增长。与此同时,随着港口建设规模日益大型化,大量的沿海土地转化成了港口用地,一方面给城市土地资源带来压力,另一方面增加了区域生态环境负荷。为此,有必要开展港口用地变化的相关研究,探索港口用地的演化规律,为港口用地规划提供科学依据,促进土地资源合理配置与可持续发展。本文针对港口建设过程中的用地变化问题,综合Logistic回归与多准则评价方法,建立了港口用地变化驱动因素的定量分析方法,并引入城市用地变化研究中广泛使用的CA-Markov模型,结合港口用地的发展特点,对该模型在港口用地变化研究中的应用展开了深入分析,为港口土地利用变化的研究提供了一种新的思路。本文探讨了研究港口用地变化所需的土地利用分类体系及分类方法；根据港口用地的发展特征,提出了土地利用转移概率矩阵的改进计算方式；对引起港口用地变化的自然环境和社会人文因素进行了深入分析；综合Logistic回归与多准则评价,建立了定量计算驱动因素作用下港口用地适宜性概率的方法；从港口用地适宜性图像与港口用地模拟结果两方面提出了CA-Markov模型适用性的验证规则；以实际港口为例,利用CA-Markov模型对港口用地变化进行了模拟。研究结果表明,CA-Marko v模型能够较好地模拟出港口土地利用的变化趋势,为港口的科学合理规划提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:The development of the port promotes the urbanization process of the coastal areas and stimulates the regional economic growth. At the same time, with the increasingly large scale of port construction, a large amount of coastal land has been converted into port land. On the one hand, it brings pressure to urban land resources, on the other hand, it increases the load of regional ecological environment. Therefore, it is necessary to study the change of port land, explore the law of port land evolution, provide scientific basis for port land planning, and promote the rational allocation and sustainable development of land resources. In this paper, the quantitative analysis method of the driving factors of port land use change is established by synthesizing Logistic regression and multi-criteria evaluation method in the process of port construction, and the CA-Markov model widely used in the study of urban land use change is introduced. Combined with the development characteristics of port land, the application of this model in the study of port land use change is deeply analyzed, which provides a new way of thinking for the study of port land use change. This paper discusses the land use classification system and classification method needed to study port land use change, and puts forward an improved calculation method of land use transfer probability matrix according to the development characteristics of port land use. The natural environment and social and human factors that cause the port land use change are deeply analyzed, and the method of quantitatively calculating the probability of port land suitability under the action of the driving factors is established by synthesizing the Logistic regression and the multi-criteria evaluation. The applicability of the CA-Markov model is verified from the port suitability images and the simulation results of the port land, and the CA-Markov model is used to simulate the change of the port land using the actual port as an example. The results show that CA-Marko v model can well simulate the change trend of port land use and provide reference for scientific and rational planning of port.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U651

【共引文献】