诱导信息下出行者路径选择行为研究

发布时间：2018-09-07 21:58

【摘要】：可变信息板(VMS)在交通流诱导系统(TGS)中作为一种诱导信息发布的重要手段,能实时地为出行途中的出行者提供路径诱导信息,引导其做出合理的路径选择行为。然而路径选择行为是出行者个人的活动,每个出行者都有自己的出行目标和行为准则,在VMS提供的诱导信息下进行独立的判断与评估,并做出决策,每个出行者的决策不仅影响当前的交通状态,而且还会影响未来的交通状态。本文旨在研究诱导信息提供对出行者路径选择行为的关键影响因素,为制定合理有效的诱导策略提供参考与依据。论文首先分析了诱导信息下出行者路径选择决策过程,并设计SP调查问卷、收集影响路径选择的可能因素,统计调查数据,初步分析出影响较大的相关因素,包括出行者的性别、年龄、年收入、驾龄等个人属性,出行目的、出行频率等出行属性,对VMS的关注频率、对VMS的准确度评价等诱导信息属性,以及道路等级、交通事件类型等道路属性。其次,借助SPSS统计软件在二元Logit回归分析的基础上对影响因素逐步剔除、筛选,提取出影响出行者路径选择的最显著因素,并构建了诱导信息下的出行者路径选择模型。向该模型输入不同影响因素的自变量,可以预测出行者改变路径的概率。最后,对模型标定结果进行量化分析,结果表明,出行者的驾龄、年收入、对VMS的关注频率和对VMS的准确度评价四种因素均在不同程度上对出行者路径选择有影响。随着驾龄的增加,出行者对VMS诱导信息的依赖程度降低,根据诱导信息改变路径的概率减小；年收入越高的出行者,对出行时间和出行时间延误敏感度越大,根据诱导信息改变路径的概率也越大；出行者对VMS的关注频率及对VMS准确度评价越高,对诱导信息的服从率也越高。
[Abstract]:Variable information board (VMS) is an important means to publish guidance information in traffic flow guidance system (TGS). It can provide route guidance information for travelers on the way to travel in real time and guide them to make reasonable path selection behavior. However, path selection behavior is the individual activity of the traveler. Each traveler has its own travel goals and codes of conduct. Under the guidance information provided by the VMS, the behavior is judged and evaluated independently, and the decision is made. Each traveler's decision will not only affect the current state of traffic, but also affect the future state of traffic. The purpose of this paper is to study the key factors that influence the path selection behavior of travelers by providing induction information, and to provide a reference and basis for the formulation of reasonable and effective induction strategies. Firstly, the paper analyzes the decision-making process of traveler's path selection under induced information, designs SP questionnaire, collects the possible factors that affect the path selection, statistics the survey data, and preliminarily analyzes the relative factors that have a great influence on the path selection. It includes personal attributes such as sex, age, annual income, driving age, travel purpose, travel frequency and so on, the attention to VMS, the accuracy evaluation of VMS, and so on, as well as the road grade. Traffic event type and other road properties. Secondly, on the basis of binary Logit regression analysis, the most significant factors affecting the traveler's path selection are extracted by SPSS statistical software, and the most significant factors are extracted from the selection of the influencing factors based on the binary Logit regression analysis, and the traveller path selection model based on the induced information is constructed. By inputting independent variables of different factors into the model, the probability of changing the path of the traveler can be predicted. Finally, the model calibration results are quantitatively analyzed. The results show that the driving age, annual income, attention frequency to VMS and accuracy evaluation of VMS all affect the path selection of travelers to varying degrees. With the increase of driving age, the degree of dependence on VMS induced information decreases, and the probability of changing the path according to the induced information decreases. The higher the annual income, the greater the sensitivity to travel time and travel time delay. The higher the probability of changing the path according to the induced information, the higher the attention frequency of the traveler to VMS and the higher the evaluation of the accuracy of VMS, the higher the compliance rate of the induced information is.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U495

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