基于TEI@I方法论的集装箱港口聚类研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 19:09

【摘要】：中国经济贸易的蓬勃发展,促使了集装箱航运业的迅速崛起,使得集装箱港口对国民经济的发展起着越来越重要的作用。但是由于我国集装箱港口的基础设施条件、所处地理位置、所依托城市腹地的经济发展水平等参差不齐,导致我国集装箱港口布局规划混乱、港口间不合理的分工等问题层出不穷。传统的港口聚类主要集中在单一影响因素下进行的聚类,对于复杂的集装箱港口系统来说,有必要找出一种全面考虑集装箱港口复杂影响因素的综合聚类研究框架。本文在分析了我国集装箱港口发展现存问题和集装箱港口复杂性的基础上,结合处理复杂系统的TEI@I方法论和聚类相关理论,提出了一种港口综合聚类框架;首先是运用文本挖掘(Text Mining)和专家系统(Intelligence)等智能技术挖掘出复杂的集装箱港口发展影响因素,进而结合经济模型(Econometrics)相关性分析对集装箱港口进行综合(Integration)聚类指标选取,最后运用港口综合聚类指标实现对代表性港口的聚类;聚类得到以下结果,即从规模上,将所选取港口分为国际性港口、区域性枢纽港口、沿海区域性港口、地方性港口四个层次,得到各港口合理的布局和定位,同时从港口吞吐量增长规律上,将所选取港口分为平稳增长型、加速增长型和波动增长型三大类,并得出具有不同增长规律的港口所适用的预测方法。本文从集装箱港口系统的复杂性视角,基于TEI@I方法论的思想,实现对集装箱港口的规模及增长规律不同角度的聚类,得到各个规模港口合理的布局和定位、不同增长规律的港口所适用的预测方法,对于港口规划建设、正确地预测港口未来的吞吐量、企业投资等都具有极其重要的战略意义。
[Abstract]:The booming development of China's economy and trade promotes the rapid rise of container shipping industry and makes container ports play a more and more important role in the development of national economy. However, due to the uneven infrastructure conditions, geographical location and the level of economic development in the hinterland of the container ports in China, the layout and planning of container ports in our country are in confusion. Problems such as unreasonable division of labor between ports emerge in endlessly. The traditional port clustering is mainly focused on the cluster under the single influence factor. For the complex container port system, it is necessary to find a comprehensive cluster research framework that takes into account the complex factors of container port. Based on the analysis of the existing problems in the development of container ports and the complexity of container ports in China, this paper puts forward a comprehensive cluster framework of ports based on the TEI@I methodology and clustering theory of dealing with complex systems. Firstly, the paper uses intelligent technologies such as text mining (Text Mining) and expert system (Intelligence) to find out the complex influencing factors of container port development, and then combines the correlation analysis of economic model (Econometrics) to select the comprehensive (Integration) clustering index of container port. Finally, using the comprehensive cluster index of port to realize the clustering of representative ports, the following results are obtained, that is, the selected ports are divided into international port, regional hub port, coastal regional port, the scale of the selected port, According to the law of port throughput growth, the selected ports are divided into three categories: steady growth type, accelerated growth type and fluctuating growth type. The forecasting methods for ports with different growth laws are obtained. From the perspective of the complexity of container port system, based on the idea of TEI@I methodology, this paper realizes the cluster of different angles of the scale and growth law of container port, and obtains the reasonable layout and orientation of each size port. The forecasting methods for ports with different growth laws are of great strategic significance to the planning and construction of ports, the correct prediction of port throughput in the future, and the investment of enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F552

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