基于结构方程的区域运输通道出行方式选择行为研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 17:21

【摘要】：高效运转的交通运输网络是经济社会发展的重要物质基础,构建各种交通方式协同发展的综合运输网络体系是未来交通运输的发展方向。运输通道作为运输网络骨干,通道内出行者的出行行为研究—直以来都是交通行为领域的重要课题。为了描述和解释运输通道内客运出行方式选择行为,本文从出行产生的内在机理入手,探讨出行者潜在心理因素对出行方式选择的影响。首先,通过分析出行者出行全过程,概括出影响出行方式选择的因素,构建了出行决策过程模型,假设行为意向受知觉价值影响,知觉价值受方便陛、舒适陛、安全性、经济性和快速性这五个潜在因素的影响,运用结构方程模型分析以上各项潜在影响因素对出行结果作用大小,以及各潜在影响因素与个人显性因素之间的相互关系；并在此基础上,将出行者心理潜在变量纳入效用函数中,建立涵盖潜变量和显变量共同作用的运输通道客运量预测的SEM-MNL整合模型。最后,以成.渝运输通道为例,通过实地问卷调查,结果显示加入潜变量的整合模型检验指标比未考虑潜变量的传统模型要更优,说明模型的准确率有大幅提升,潜变量对出行者选择决策有显著影响。此外,各出行方式结构模型标准化路径结果表明,知觉价值对出行行为意向有正面显著性影响,出行者选择铁路的重要影响因素是经济性和快速I生,选择客运汽车的出行者更偏爱的是快速『生和方便l生,而私家车出行者则更青睐私家车的舒适懒瞄莉快速性。
[Abstract]:Efficient transportation network is an important material basis for economic and social development. It is the direction of transportation development in the future to construct a comprehensive transportation network system with coordinated development of various transportation modes. As the backbone of transportation network, the study on the travel behavior of travelers in the channel has been an important subject in the field of traffic behavior. In order to describe and explain the choice behavior of passenger travel mode in the transportation channel, this paper discusses the influence of the potential psychological factors of travelers on the choice of travel mode from the internal mechanism of travel. Firstly, by analyzing the whole travel process of travelers, the factors influencing the choice of travel modes are summarized, and a travel decision process model is constructed. It assumes that behavior intention is affected by perceived value, and perceived value is convenient, comfortable and safe. The influence of the five potential factors of economy and rapidity is analyzed by using the structural equation model to analyze the relationship between the potential influencing factors and individual dominant factors. On this basis, the potential psychological variables of travelers are incorporated into the utility function, and a SEM-MNL integrated model for passenger volume prediction of transportation channels is established, which covers the interaction of latent variables and explicit variables. Finally, in order to achieve. Chongqing transportation corridor as an example, through the field survey, the results show that the integrated model test index with latent variables is better than the traditional model without considering latent variables, which shows that the accuracy of the model has been greatly improved. Latent variables have significant influence on traveler's choice decision. In addition, the results of standardized paths of each travel mode structure model show that perceived value has a positive and significant effect on travel behavior intention, and that the important factors affecting the traveler's choice of railway are economy and fast generation. Passengers who choose passenger cars prefer fast "health" and convenience "students", while private car travelers prefer the comfortable, lazy and rapid nature of private cars.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U116

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