基于活动需求的个体可达性建模方法研究
发布时间：2018-10-05 21:16
【摘要】：交通需求是一种派生(Derived Need)需求。人们的交通产生源于在城市中不同功能分区进行工作、学习、社会交往、购物等社会经济活动的需求,因此需要从交通需求的本源角度即居民活动需求角度来探寻交通问题的特性及其形成机理。在交通系统中,用来测度人们进行日常出行活动是否舒适、安全、便捷、准时、经济地到达目的地,可以采用可达性这一测度指标。传统的可达性是指由土地利用一交通系统所决定的、人/货物通过一定的交通方式到达目的地或参与活动的方便程度等。主要是从土地使用、交通系统、时间限制、个人等四个方面对可达性有不同理解。人是城市的主体,以个体为研究对象分析可达性的内涵尤为重要。对个人可达性的研究,传统方法是从空间角度对个体活动进行评价,如累积机会法、距离法等。而现阶段的研究是基于时间地理学的理论框架,从时空双重条件约束下个体的可达性。而以上方法都是从供给的角度测度可达性。可达性的概念直接体现居民通过出行而实现个体生活目的的难易程度。从活动需求的角度分析人们的实际和潜在出行需求,才能更好地理解和提供交通服务。为此,本文提出了一种基于活动需求的交通可达性测度新方法。首先,本文以个体为研究对象,从居民个体的活动需求角度出发,提出了基于活动需求的个体可达性定义。其次,分析了居民的广义出行成本,是本文基于活动需求的个体可达性的重要因素。个体可达性的关键因素在于个体的感知,因此本文考虑个体感知的广义出行成本,主要由使用成本、时间成本和疲劳成本(舒适成本和心情愉悦成本)等三部分构成。再次,基于活动需求的个体可达性的模型构建,是源于随机效用理论的基于效用的可达性测度方法,主要考虑个体对方式选择、目的地选择以及活动类型选择而产生不同的效用,从而构建由三个MNL模型而形成的嵌套Logit模型。模型考虑了个体特性、家庭特性以及出行特性等影响因素,并将考虑个体感知的广义出行成本这一重要影响因素,加入目的地选择层模型标定中。其中需要借助Logsum变量连接相邻层。最后,在给出算例分析的基础上,构建居民日常选择活动类型的不同维度可达性分析方法,构建不同维度的可达性分析方法。分析小区居民不同维度的平均可达性、个体不同活动需求维度的可达性以及不同群体的不同活动需求可达性并绘制不同周活动需求可达性的雷达图。结果显示居民的日常活动需求中,对于通勤性活动需求的可达性较高,生活性活动需求可达性适中,全日制工作者对于通勤性活动需求可达性要求较高。
[Abstract]:Traffic demand is a derivative of (Derived Need) requirements. People's traffic arises from the need for social and economic activities such as work, study, social interaction, shopping, etc., in different functional districts of the city. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the characteristics and formation mechanism of traffic problems from the perspective of the origin of traffic demand, that is, residents' activity demand. In the transportation system, it can be used to measure whether people are comfortable, safe, convenient, punctual and economical to reach their destination. Traditional accessibility refers to the degree of convenience for people / goods to reach their destination or participate in activities through a certain mode of transportation, which is determined by a land use and transportation system. Mainly from four aspects of land use, transportation system, time constraints, individuals, there are different understandings of accessibility. Man is the main body of the city, and it is very important to analyze the connotation of accessibility with individual as the object of study. In the study of individual accessibility, the traditional method is to evaluate individual activities from the perspective of space, such as cumulative opportunity method, distance method and so on. The present research is based on the theoretical framework of time geography, from the constraints of time and space dual conditions of individual accessibility. The above methods measure reachability from the angle of supply. The concept of reachability directly reflects the degree of difficulty for residents to achieve their personal purpose through travel. Only by analyzing the actual and potential travel demand of people from the point of view of activity demand can we better understand and provide transportation services. In this paper, a new method of traffic reachability measurement based on activity requirement is proposed. Firstly, this paper takes the individual as the research object and puts forward the definition of individual reachability based on the activity demand of the resident individual. Secondly, the generalized travel cost is analyzed, which is an important factor of individual accessibility based on activity demand. The key factor of individual accessibility is individual perception. Therefore, the generalized travel cost of individual perception is mainly composed of three parts: use cost, time cost and fatigue cost (comfort cost and mood pleasure cost). Thirdly, the model of individual reachability based on activity demand is a method of measurement of reachability based on utility based on stochastic utility theory, which mainly considers the choice of individual pairs. The choice of destination and the choice of activity type produce different utility, so that the nested Logit model formed by three MNL models is constructed. The model takes into account the influence factors such as individual characteristics, family characteristics and travel characteristics, and takes into account the generalized travel cost of individual perception, which is an important factor to be added to the calibration of the destination selection layer model. The Logsum variable is needed to connect the adjacent layers. Finally, on the basis of the example analysis, the paper constructs different dimension accessibility analysis method of residents' daily choice activity type, and constructs different dimension reachability analysis method. The average reachability of different dimensions of community residents, the reachability of different activity demand dimensions of individuals and the reachability of different groups of different activity requirements are analyzed and the radar map of different cycle activity demand reachability is drawn. The results showed that the demand for commuting activities was higher, the demand for living activities was moderate, and the demand of full-time workers for commuting activities was higher.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491
[Abstract]:Traffic demand is a derivative of (Derived Need) requirements. People's traffic arises from the need for social and economic activities such as work, study, social interaction, shopping, etc., in different functional districts of the city. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the characteristics and formation mechanism of traffic problems from the perspective of the origin of traffic demand, that is, residents' activity demand. In the transportation system, it can be used to measure whether people are comfortable, safe, convenient, punctual and economical to reach their destination. Traditional accessibility refers to the degree of convenience for people / goods to reach their destination or participate in activities through a certain mode of transportation, which is determined by a land use and transportation system. Mainly from four aspects of land use, transportation system, time constraints, individuals, there are different understandings of accessibility. Man is the main body of the city, and it is very important to analyze the connotation of accessibility with individual as the object of study. In the study of individual accessibility, the traditional method is to evaluate individual activities from the perspective of space, such as cumulative opportunity method, distance method and so on. The present research is based on the theoretical framework of time geography, from the constraints of time and space dual conditions of individual accessibility. The above methods measure reachability from the angle of supply. The concept of reachability directly reflects the degree of difficulty for residents to achieve their personal purpose through travel. Only by analyzing the actual and potential travel demand of people from the point of view of activity demand can we better understand and provide transportation services. In this paper, a new method of traffic reachability measurement based on activity requirement is proposed. Firstly, this paper takes the individual as the research object and puts forward the definition of individual reachability based on the activity demand of the resident individual. Secondly, the generalized travel cost is analyzed, which is an important factor of individual accessibility based on activity demand. The key factor of individual accessibility is individual perception. Therefore, the generalized travel cost of individual perception is mainly composed of three parts: use cost, time cost and fatigue cost (comfort cost and mood pleasure cost). Thirdly, the model of individual reachability based on activity demand is a method of measurement of reachability based on utility based on stochastic utility theory, which mainly considers the choice of individual pairs. The choice of destination and the choice of activity type produce different utility, so that the nested Logit model formed by three MNL models is constructed. The model takes into account the influence factors such as individual characteristics, family characteristics and travel characteristics, and takes into account the generalized travel cost of individual perception, which is an important factor to be added to the calibration of the destination selection layer model. The Logsum variable is needed to connect the adjacent layers. Finally, on the basis of the example analysis, the paper constructs different dimension accessibility analysis method of residents' daily choice activity type, and constructs different dimension reachability analysis method. The average reachability of different dimensions of community residents, the reachability of different activity demand dimensions of individuals and the reachability of different groups of different activity requirements are analyzed and the radar map of different cycle activity demand reachability is drawn. The results showed that the demand for commuting activities was higher, the demand for living activities was moderate, and the demand of full-time workers for commuting activities was higher.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491
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