常规公交换乘时间可靠性价值及换乘惩罚研究

发布时间：2018-10-15 14:53

【摘要】：随着城市急剧扩张,城市建设规模日益增大,居民远距离出行需求也在不断增加,而常规公交作为城市交通运输系统中的重要组成部分,其公交线路网不可能满足城市中各个OD点对之间的公交直达服务。因此,大多出行者长距离出行选择公交中换乘是必须的。由于出行者对公交服务质量的要求,不仅关注时间自身,更注重时间波动,可见换乘时间的可靠性会影响出行者公交路线选择行为。从换乘时间可靠性出发,研究其价值和对换乘惩罚的影响具有重要意义,可以为公交服务水平的评估、公交建设项目的决策以及交通流的预测提供参考依据。本文阐述了换乘时间可靠性价值和换乘惩罚的概念,分析了两者的影响因素、换乘时间构成和换乘成本。采用SP调查法和情景组合设计法对换乘时间可靠性价值和换乘惩罚研究分别设计调查问卷,并引入了换乘时间可靠性的两个影响因素:可换乘公交路线数和换乘公交到达率。对于换乘时间可靠性价值的研究,根据广义换乘成本,建立了评估换乘时间可靠性价值的均值-方差模型,包含平均换乘时间、换乘时间波动(标准差)和换乘费用。对于换乘惩罚值的研究,通过分析公交出行时间构成,建立出行者效用函数,包含车内时间、换乘步行时间和换乘候车时间三部分。最后,根据相应的调查数据,利用二元Logit模型对求解换乘时间可靠性价值的模型和换乘惩罚的效用函数进行参数估计,得到不同情况下的换乘时间可靠性价值和换乘惩罚。且基于出行者的个人属性(包括性别、年龄、受教育程度),进一步分析换乘时间可靠性价值和换乘惩罚的异质性差异。
[Abstract]:With the rapid expansion of the city, the scale of urban construction is increasing day by day, and the residents' demand for long-distance travel is also increasing. As an important part of the urban transportation system, bus routine is an important part of the urban transportation system. It is impossible to meet the bus direct service between the OD pairs in the city. Therefore, it is necessary for most travelers to choose bus transfer for long distance travel. Due to the requirement of bus service quality, travelers pay more attention not only to time itself, but also to time fluctuation, so it is obvious that the reliability of transfer time will affect the choice of bus route. From the point of view of the reliability of transfer time, it is of great significance to study its value and influence on the penalty of transfer, which can provide a reference for the evaluation of bus service level, the decision of public transport construction project and the prediction of traffic flow. In this paper, the concepts of reliability value and penalty of transfer time are introduced, and the influencing factors, the composition of transfer time and the transfer cost are analyzed. The reliability value and penalty of transfer time were investigated by SP survey method and scenario combination design method. Two factors influencing the reliability of transfer time were introduced: the number of bus routes and the arrival rate of transfer bus. For the study of the reliability value of transfer time, according to the generalized transfer cost, the mean-variance model for evaluating the reliability value of transfer time is established, which includes the average transfer time, the fluctuation of transfer time (standard deviation) and the transfer cost. For the study of transfer penalty value, by analyzing the composition of bus travel time, the utility function of passengers is established, which includes three parts: in-vehicle time, transfer walking time and transfer waiting time. Finally, according to the corresponding investigation data, the binary Logit model is used to estimate the parameters of the model of calculating the reliability value of transfer time and the utility function of transfer penalty, and the reliability value and penalty of transfer time are obtained under different conditions. Based on the personal attributes (including gender, age, education level), the paper further analyzes the heterogeneity of the reliability value of transfer time and the penalty of transfer.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

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