冰雪天气下高速公路交通事故分析与预防对策研究

发布时间：2018-10-18 12:29

【摘要】：高速公路凭借其车速高、通行能力大等突出优势成为我国交通运输系统的重要组成部分。然而随着通车里程和交通量的持续增长,高速公路交通安全问题显得日益突出。尤其是冰雪天气等不利因素引发的交通事故,对高速公路的行车安全造成了巨大影响。为了保障冬季高速公路的行车安全,对冰雪天气下交通事故展开深入分析,有助于预防交通事故发生,降低因冰雪天气导致的事故损失,对于冬季高速公路行车安全管理有着重要意义。冰雪天气下高速公路交通系统特性分析从道路、驾驶员、车辆、环境四个方面展开研究,挖掘影响行车安全的不利因素。交通事故特征分析运用统计分析方法,从事故数量、受损程度、时空分布、形态和交通方式等方面对冰雪天气交通事故数据进行分析,并与非冰雪天气下加以对比,得出冰雪天气高速公路交通事故的特征规律。交通事故持续时间预测应用生存分析模型进行研究。统计分析得到事故持续时间的分布形式,对影响因素进行显著性分析,从而建立事故持续时间的加速失效模型。交通事故受损程度预测运用累积logistic回归方法进行研究。根据事故数据的实际情况确定了事故受损程度的分类,选取8个候选自变量建立起基于累积logistic回归的事故受损程度预测模型,研究了事故受损程度与影响因素之间的相关关系,并对模型进行检验。冰雪天气交通事故预防对策研究以预防事故发生以及降低事故损失为目标,研究了冰雪天气限速方案、冬季除雪防滑总体方案以及事故救援预案。
[Abstract]:Expressway has become an important part of the transportation system of our country by virtue of its outstanding advantages such as high speed and large capacity. However, with the continuous growth of traffic mileage and traffic volume, highway traffic safety problems become increasingly prominent. Especially, traffic accidents caused by ice-snow weather and other adverse factors have a great impact on highway safety. In order to ensure the safety of the winter freeway, the traffic accident under the snow and ice weather is analyzed in depth, which is helpful to prevent the traffic accident and reduce the accident loss caused by the ice and snow weather. It is of great significance to the safety management of freeway in winter. Analysis on the characteristics of Expressway Traffic system under Ice and Snow Weather the study is carried out from four aspects: road driver vehicle and environment to excavate the unfavorable factors that affect the driving safety. Traffic accident characteristics Analysis using statistical analysis method, the traffic accident data of ice and snow weather are analyzed from the aspects of accident number, damage degree, temporal and spatial distribution, morphology and traffic mode, and compared with those in non-snow weather. The characteristics of traffic accidents on freeway with ice and snow weather are obtained. The prediction of traffic accident duration is studied by using the survival analysis model. The distribution form of accident duration was obtained by statistical analysis, and the influence factors were analyzed significantly, and the accelerated failure model of accident duration was established. The cumulative logistic regression method is used to predict the degree of traffic accident damage. According to the actual situation of the accident data, the classification of the degree of accident damage is determined. Eight candidate independent variables are selected to establish the prediction model of the degree of accident damage based on cumulative logistic regression, and the correlation between the degree of accident damage and the influencing factors is studied. The model is tested. In order to prevent accidents and reduce the loss of accidents, the speed limit scheme of snow and ice weather, the general scheme of snow removal and anti-skid in winter and the accident rescue plan are studied.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U491.31

【相似文献】