区域运输通道内旅客运输方式选择研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 07:46

【摘要】：随着“四纵四横”铁路网的规划建设,宝兰客运专线即将投入使用,其投入使用必然会对西兰运输通道原有运输方式选择产生重大影响,使得西兰通道内客运市场竞争更加激烈。为了分析这些变化对通道客运结构的影响,解决通道内多种运输方式竞争无序、各自为政的混乱现象,通过对通道内旅客运输方式选择行为进行研究,以便很好的把握旅客出行规律,不断提高服务水平,充分利用通道内有限资源,使其各自发挥自身优势的同时满足旅客多样化的出行需求,为形成优势互补、竞争、协作、有序的旅客运输市场奠定基础。本文以通道理论为基础,结合通道内运输方式的结构和特点,从出行者出行心理和出行过程等方面对影响出行者运输方式选择的个人属性、交通工具属性和社会环境属性进行了详细论述。在此基础上,引入效用理论对出行决策的三个相互依赖阶段:“预决策-决策-决策后”进行了分析,并推理得到效用最大化的数学决策模型。综合前人在出行方面的研究,对比分析了集计模型和非集计模型的优缺点,遵循特性变量的选取原则,建立了由Logit模型演变而来的MNL模型,设计了ML法和NR法参数估计算法,并对特性变量参数估计结果采用t统计量和似然率对模型进行了验证。其次以西兰运输通道旅客运输方式选择行为的调查数据为基础,对“出行时间”、“收入”、“出行费用”、“费用收入比”、“费用来源”、“安全性”、“舒适性”、“方便性”、“准时性”等属性给出了量化方法,并结合特性变量的选取原则,最终选择“收入”、“出行时间”、“出行费用”、“舒适性”等特性变量带入已建立的MNL模型,通过TransCAD软件求解得到各个特性变量的参数估计值,并由此确定效用函数的形式,从而预测出西兰通道内各个城市间各种运输方式的分担率,以及通道内不同运输方式的总分担率。最后,引入经济学的弹性理论,借助模型t统计量的显著性分析,选取“出行时间”和“出行费用”作为显著性特性变量,研究显著性特性变量对通道内运输方式的选择影响。通过对“出行时间”变量的交叉弹性计算,得到客运专线在不同速度值下变动引起通道内不同城市间各种运输方式分担率的变动幅度,最终分析得到客运专线合理速度目标为250km/h。对“出行费用”变量采用点弹性分析得到通道内各个城市间不同运输方式票价变动对每个选择枝选择行为的灵敏度,为政府宏观调控提供依据。
[Abstract]:With the planning and construction of the "fourth vertical and fourth horizontal" railway network, the Baolan passenger dedicated Line will soon be put into use, and its use will inevitably have a significant impact on the choice of the original mode of transport for the New Zealand transport channel. This makes the market for passenger transport more competitive in the channel of New Zealand. In order to analyze the influence of these changes on the passenger transport structure of the channel and solve the chaotic phenomenon of various modes of transportation competition in the channel, this paper studies the behavior of the choice of passenger transport mode in the channel. In order to grasp the travel rules of passengers, constantly improve the service level, make full use of the limited resources in the channel, make their own advantages to meet the diversified travel needs of passengers, in order to form complementary advantages, competition, cooperation, The orderly passenger transport market lays the foundation. Based on the channel theory and the structure and characteristics of the transportation mode in the passage, this paper analyzes the personal attributes that affect the choice of the transportation mode from the aspects of travel psychology and travel process. The attributes of transportation and social environment are discussed in detail. On this basis, the utility theory is introduced to analyze the three interdependent stages of travel decision making: "pre-decision after decision", and the mathematical decision model of utility maximization is obtained by inference. Based on the previous studies on travel, the advantages and disadvantages of the set and disaggregate models are compared and analyzed. Following the principle of selecting characteristic variables, the MNL model evolved from the Logit model is established, and the parameter estimation algorithms of ML method and NR method are designed. The model is verified by t statistic and likelihood rate. Secondly, on the basis of the survey data on the behavior of passenger transport mode selection in the West Blue Transport Channel, we analyzed the "travel time", "income", "travel cost", "cost income ratio", "cost source", "safety", "comfort", and "travel time", "income", "travel cost", "safety" and "comfort". "convenience", "punctuality" and other attributes give a quantitative method, and combined with the selection principle of characteristic variables, the final choice of "income", "travel time", "travel costs", The characteristic variables such as "comfort" are brought into the established MNL model, and the parameter estimates of each characteristic variable are obtained by TransCAD software, and the form of utility function is determined. Thus, the sharing rate of different modes of transportation among cities in the channel and the total share rate of different modes of transport in the channel are predicted. Finally, by introducing the elasticity theory of economics and using the significance analysis of model t statistics, we select "travel time" and "trip cost" as significant characteristic variables, and study the influence of significant characteristic variables on the choice of transportation mode in the channel. Based on the cross elastic calculation of the "travel time" variable, the variation of the sharing rate of various transportation modes among different cities in the passageway caused by the change of the speed value of the passenger dedicated line is obtained. Finally, the reasonable speed target of passenger dedicated line is 250 km / h. Point elasticity analysis is used to analyze the "travel cost" variable to obtain the sensitivity of the fare change of different transportation modes in the passage to the selection behavior of each choice branch, which provides the basis for the government to adjust and control macroscopically.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U116

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