W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险分析及控制研究
发布时间：2018-11-22 07:08
【摘要】：当今社会一切都是项目,工程项目建设对全社会的发展有着关键性的促进作用。然而,在全球经济、科技迅猛发展的情形下,市场竞争越来越随之激烈,再加上工程建设项目自身的投资大、周期长、参与主体多、组织关系复杂等诸多特点,工程建设项目所面临的不确定因素也越来越多,从而也就会面对越来越多的风险和风险损失,因而,对工程建设项目的风险分析及其控制研究成为近年来学界和实践部门所关注的重要课题之一。基于此考虑,文章即以W市公路服务中心工程建设项目为研究对象,旨在通过对这一具体工程项目风险的基本分析,试图寻找到工程建设项目在风险控制策略上的基本共性,从而为风险管理者的决策提供有价值的借鉴和参考,并进一步推动项目风险管理的研究拓展。具体而言,本研究的目的和总体思路为:运用项目风险管理的相关理论知识,从W市公路服务中心工程项目的实践出发,对该项目进行可行性分析、风险因素识别,并利用专家评判和模糊综合评价等研究方法,对项目整体的风险水平进行定量评估和风险定级,并最终提出风险控制策略。这主要包括四大方面:第一,W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的可行性分析。也即是从技术、经济、社会三大角度来论证W市公路服务中心工程项目的建设可行性。一是从实施背景、总体目标、各个子系统的设计方案、参数条件等方面来阐述该项目建设的技术实现可行性;二是利用"成本—效益"分析法,对W市公路服务中心工程建设项目进行投资估算,从直接经济效益、间接经济效益以及社会效益等方面论证了这一项目的经济和社会可行性。第二,W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险因素的识别及其内在机理分析。这主要是在可行性分析的基础上,对W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险因素进行有效识别,通过建立W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险清单,分析出可能的存在风险,并分析这些风险因素产生的原因及其内在关联。第三,W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险评估分析。这主要是通过构建W市公路服务中心工程建设项目风险评估体系,利用AHP层次分析法和模糊评价法,对该项目的风险水平进行了定量分析和风险定级,旨在为风险控制策略的提出提供依据。第四,W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的风险控制策略分析。这是风险因素的问题解决阶段,在风险识别和风险评估之后,从风险回避、风险转移、风险减轻、风险接受四大方面阐释了工程项目风险控制的一般性策略,并针对W市公路服务中心工程建设项目各类不同的风险因素,提出了具体的风险减轻的应对策略,这便可作为风险应对规划过程的主要依据,保障W市公路服务中心工程建设项目的顺利实施。
[Abstract]:Nowadays, everything is a project, and the construction of engineering project plays a key role in promoting the development of the whole society. However, with the rapid development of the global economy and the rapid development of science and technology, the market competition is becoming more and more intense. In addition, the construction projects themselves have a large investment, a long period, a large number of participants, complex organizational relationships, and so on. Engineering construction projects are facing more and more uncertain factors, so they will face more and more risks and risk losses. The research on risk analysis and control of engineering construction projects has become one of the most important topics in the academic and practical fields in recent years. Based on this consideration, this paper takes the construction project of road service center of W city as the research object, aims at finding the basic commonness of the risk control strategy of the project through the basic analysis of the risk of this concrete project. Thus, it can provide valuable reference for risk managers to make decisions, and further promote the research and development of project risk management. Specifically, the purpose and the overall idea of this study are as follows: using the relevant theoretical knowledge of project risk management, starting from the practice of the project of road service center in W city, the feasibility analysis and risk factor identification of the project are carried out. Using the methods of expert evaluation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the risk level of the whole project is quantitatively evaluated and classified, and the risk control strategy is put forward. This mainly includes four aspects: first, the feasibility analysis of the construction project of W City Highway Service Center. In other words, the construction feasibility of road service center project of W city is demonstrated from three angles of technology, economy and society. The first is from the implementation background, the overall goal, each subsystem design scheme, the parameter condition and so on aspect and so on elaborated this project construction technical realization feasibility; The second is to estimate the investment of highway service center project in W city by using the method of cost-benefit analysis, and prove the economic and social feasibility of the project from the aspects of direct economic benefit, indirect economic benefit and social benefit. Second, the identification of risk factors and the analysis of internal mechanism of road service center construction project in W city. On the basis of feasibility analysis, this paper effectively identifies the risk factors of the construction project of the highway service center of W city, and analyzes the possible risks by establishing the risk list of the construction project of the highway service center of W city. And analyze the causes of these risk factors and their internal relationship. Third, the risk assessment analysis of the construction project of road service center in W city. This is mainly through constructing the risk assessment system of the construction project of road service center of W city, using AHP analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the risk level of the project is quantitatively analyzed and classified. The purpose of this paper is to provide the basis for putting forward the risk control strategy. Fourth, the risk control strategy analysis of road service center project in W city. This is the problem solving stage of risk factors. After risk identification and risk assessment, the general strategy of project risk control is explained from four aspects: risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation and risk acceptance. According to the different risk factors of road service center construction project in W city, this paper puts forward specific risk mitigation strategies, which can be used as the main basis of risk response planning process. To ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Road Service Center in W City.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U415.1
本文编号：2348449
[Abstract]:Nowadays, everything is a project, and the construction of engineering project plays a key role in promoting the development of the whole society. However, with the rapid development of the global economy and the rapid development of science and technology, the market competition is becoming more and more intense. In addition, the construction projects themselves have a large investment, a long period, a large number of participants, complex organizational relationships, and so on. Engineering construction projects are facing more and more uncertain factors, so they will face more and more risks and risk losses. The research on risk analysis and control of engineering construction projects has become one of the most important topics in the academic and practical fields in recent years. Based on this consideration, this paper takes the construction project of road service center of W city as the research object, aims at finding the basic commonness of the risk control strategy of the project through the basic analysis of the risk of this concrete project. Thus, it can provide valuable reference for risk managers to make decisions, and further promote the research and development of project risk management. Specifically, the purpose and the overall idea of this study are as follows: using the relevant theoretical knowledge of project risk management, starting from the practice of the project of road service center in W city, the feasibility analysis and risk factor identification of the project are carried out. Using the methods of expert evaluation and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the risk level of the whole project is quantitatively evaluated and classified, and the risk control strategy is put forward. This mainly includes four aspects: first, the feasibility analysis of the construction project of W City Highway Service Center. In other words, the construction feasibility of road service center project of W city is demonstrated from three angles of technology, economy and society. The first is from the implementation background, the overall goal, each subsystem design scheme, the parameter condition and so on aspect and so on elaborated this project construction technical realization feasibility; The second is to estimate the investment of highway service center project in W city by using the method of cost-benefit analysis, and prove the economic and social feasibility of the project from the aspects of direct economic benefit, indirect economic benefit and social benefit. Second, the identification of risk factors and the analysis of internal mechanism of road service center construction project in W city. On the basis of feasibility analysis, this paper effectively identifies the risk factors of the construction project of the highway service center of W city, and analyzes the possible risks by establishing the risk list of the construction project of the highway service center of W city. And analyze the causes of these risk factors and their internal relationship. Third, the risk assessment analysis of the construction project of road service center in W city. This is mainly through constructing the risk assessment system of the construction project of road service center of W city, using AHP analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation method, the risk level of the project is quantitatively analyzed and classified. The purpose of this paper is to provide the basis for putting forward the risk control strategy. Fourth, the risk control strategy analysis of road service center project in W city. This is the problem solving stage of risk factors. After risk identification and risk assessment, the general strategy of project risk control is explained from four aspects: risk avoidance, risk transfer, risk mitigation and risk acceptance. According to the different risk factors of road service center construction project in W city, this paper puts forward specific risk mitigation strategies, which can be used as the main basis of risk response planning process. To ensure the smooth implementation of the construction project of Road Service Center in W City.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U415.1
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