基于系统动力学的免费公交交通模型研究

发布时间：2018-12-07 19:58

【摘要】：随着交通拥堵以及环保问题频繁出现,社会的关注点倾向于公交交通,意图通过大力推动公共交通,来缓解日渐恶劣的形势。越来越多的城市开始注重公共交通设施的优化,规划合理公交路线,开设公交车专用道等,为公交的发展奠定了基础。城市公交给民众提供经济实惠便捷的出行方式,成为居民出行生活中不可或缺的一部分,城市公交的正常运营也保证了居民的日常出行。在城市公交稳步发展,政府财政收入持续增加的情形下,许多城市开始尝试推行免费公交的惠民政策,不仅提高了城市居民的幸福指数,而且提升了自身在社会上的知名度。然而,事实上免费公交尚没有固定的发展模式,且形式多变,推行免费公交惠民政策举措的城市有成功的也有失败的。本论文将从免费公交的五大因素着手分析影响免费公交的因素,利用系统动力学研究免费公交五大子系统内部的反馈机制,创立免费公交交通模型,为免费公交的实施推行提供有力的参考依据。本文首先描述公交交通理论,阐述公共交通的地位、特征以及公交的优势,总结免费公交的设置意义及设置原则,从不同角度对免费公交进行分类,便于免费公交的认知,在此基础上逐个分析免费公交的五大影响因素。其次介绍系统动力学理论和建模方法,从构建简单的子系统因果回路图,绘制整个免费公交交通系统的因果回路图,从而得出免费公交的交通模型。最后结合台中市免费公交的实际情况以及所获取的免费公交相关数据,利用免费公交交通模型中的部分模块,建立适合台中市免费公交的交通模型,进行交通仿真,论证模型的有效性,并预测台中市免费公交的客运收入。论文的创新点在于将影响免费公交的因素归纳为五大因素,采用系统动力学构建免费公交影响子系统,从而构建整个免费公交交通模型,并利用实例验证交通模型的可行性。
[Abstract]:With traffic jams and environmental problems occurring frequently, social concerns tend to focus on public transport, with the intention of alleviating the worsening situation by vigorously promoting public transport. More and more cities begin to pay attention to the optimization of public transport facilities, plan reasonable bus routes, open bus lanes, etc., which lay the foundation for the development of public transport. Urban public transport provides people with economical and convenient travel mode and becomes an indispensable part of residents' travel life. The normal operation of urban public transport also ensures the daily travel of residents. With the steady development of urban public transport and the continuous increase of government revenue, many cities have begun to try to implement the preferential policy of free public transport, which not only improves the happiness index of urban residents, but also raises their own popularity in society. However, in fact, there is no fixed development mode of free public transport, and the form is changeable. This paper will analyze the factors that affect free public transport from five factors of free public transport, study the feedback mechanism of five subsystems of free public transportation by system dynamics, and create a free transit traffic model. For the implementation of free public transport to provide a strong reference basis. This paper first describes the theory of public transport, expounds the position, characteristics and advantages of public transport, summarizes the significance and principles of setting free public transport, classifies free public transport from different angles, and facilitates the cognition of free public transport. On this basis, one by one analysis of free public transport five major factors. Secondly, the theory of system dynamics and the modeling method are introduced. The causality loop diagram of the whole free public transportation system is drawn from the simple subsystem causality loop diagram, and the traffic model of the free public transportation system is obtained. Finally, combined with the actual situation of free public transport in Taichung city and the relevant data of free public transport, using some modules of free public transport model, the traffic model suitable for free public transport in Taichung city is established, and traffic simulation is carried out. Demonstrate the validity of the model and predict the revenue of free public transport in Taichung. The innovation of this paper is that the factors affecting free public transport are summarized into five factors, and the system dynamics is used to construct the free public transport influence subsystem, thus the whole free transit traffic model is constructed, and the feasibility of the traffic model is verified by an example.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U491.17

【相似文献】