北极航线航行经济性分析与运输分担率预测

发布时间：2018-12-20 18:00

【摘要】：当前全球气候正持续变暖,冰雪数据中心的卫星观测到的北极海冰也处于不断消融的状态,北极航线的全面开通成为现实。北冰洋是联系太平洋和大西洋的快捷通道,与传统航线相比,北极航线将大大缩短亚洲、欧洲和美洲的海上距离,降低航运成本,促进了这三大地区的经济发展,具有极大的经济和航运价值。然而由于基础设备、法规制度的不完善和缺乏航行经验,北极航线还存在一定的航行危险。因此北极航线较巴拿马运河、苏伊士运河等传统航线相比,判断出哪一个是商业航行的更好选择则是一个重要问题。故本文以北极航线为研究对象,对其航行经济性进行了相应的分析并预测了其运输分担率。为达到研究目的,首先介绍了本文的研究背景和意义,总结了北极航线的国内外研究现状,并对本文的研究内容和框架进行了简单描述。其次对北极航线自然现状、航行情况和通航前景状进行了综述,确定北极航线的通航可行性,为文章奠定研究基础。然后介绍了船舶经济性评价指标和航线航行成本的构成,并且对影响北极航线航行经济性的成本参数进行了详细分析,为后续研究奠定理论基础。之后以上海港到鹿特丹港为例,建立定量化计算的数学模型,运用成本分析法对比了通航期内每条航线的成本构成,发现燃油费、破冰引航费和船舶造价是目前影响北极航线航行经济性的主要因素,并对这三个因素进行了简单的分析。最后在前述内容所得的成本结果基础上,通过调查问卷的方式收集相关数据,并建立了离散选择模型——Logit模型,最终求出传统航线和北极航线在海上运输的分担率,体现了北极航线的重要性,认为其在货运市场的分担率将越来越大。本文以北极航线航行经济性为中心进行了研究,在一定程度上为航运企业评估北极航线提供了有用的参考。
[Abstract]:At present, the global climate is continuously warming, the Arctic sea ice observed by the ice and snow data center satellite is also in the state of melting, and the full opening of the Arctic route becomes a reality. The Arctic Ocean is a fast passage connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean. Compared with traditional routes, Arctic routes will greatly shorten the sea distance between Asia, Europe and the Americas, reduce shipping costs, and promote the economic development of these three major regions. It has great economic and shipping value. However, because of the imperfection of basic equipment, regulations and regulations, and lack of navigation experience, Arctic route still has certain navigation danger. So it is important to determine which route is a better choice than the Panama Canal, Suez Canal and other traditional routes. Therefore, this paper takes the Arctic route as the research object, carries on the corresponding analysis to its navigation economy and forecasts its transportation share rate. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, the research background and significance of this paper are introduced, and the research status of Arctic routes at home and abroad is summarized, and the research content and framework of this paper are briefly described. Secondly, the natural status, navigation situation and navigation prospect of the Arctic route are summarized, and the feasibility of the Arctic route is determined, which lays a foundation for the research. Then it introduces the evaluation index of ship economy and the composition of route navigation cost, and analyzes the cost parameters which affect the navigation economy of Arctic route in detail, which lays a theoretical foundation for further research. Then the above seaport to Rotterdam port as an example, set up the mathematical model of quantitative calculation, used cost analysis method to compare the cost composition of each route during the navigation period, found that the fuel cost, The ice-breaking pilotage fee and the ship cost are the main factors affecting the navigation economy of the Arctic route at present, and the three factors are simply analyzed. Finally, on the basis of the cost results obtained from the above contents, the relevant data are collected by questionnaire, and the discrete selection model, Logit model, is established to calculate the share rate of the traditional route and the Arctic route in sea transportation. This reflects the importance of Arctic routes, which are expected to share more and more in the freight market. In this paper, the economy of Arctic route navigation is taken as the center, which provides a useful reference for shipping enterprises to evaluate Arctic route to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F551;U697.33

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