基于不确定度理论的汽车与行人碰撞车速计算研究
发布时间：2019-01-07 06:52
【摘要】：现代人类社会的政治、经济及生活等活动,都与汽车有着紧密的联系。汽车在带给人类舒适和便捷交通等正面效应的同时,也带来了道路交通事故等负面效应。随着道路交通事故日趋增多特别是汽车与行人事故,不但威胁着人们的生命安全还造成巨额经济损失以及民事纠纷等。因此,对汽车与行人事故的研究就显得至关重要。汽车与行人碰撞事故是我国交通事故的主要类型,该类型事故致死率极高且与人们的安全出行密切相关,受到民众的广泛关注。但传统的事故分析方法在此类事故的处理上存在很大困难。事故再现是交通事故处理的关键环节,也是交通安全领域的一个重点研究内容。本文以道路交通事故中汽车与行人碰撞事故为研究对象,以事故车速估算方法为研究目的,针对基于行人第一落地点抛距的事故车速预估模型的不确定因素,运用不确定度理论和Pc-Crash仿真软件以及MATLAB仿真平台对事故车速的预估模型展开相关研究。主要工作包括以下两点:在相关研究的基础上,建立了基于行人第一落点抛距的事故车速预估模型;运用仿真实验和实际案例,把本文提出的事故车速计算方法与现有几种事故车速估计方法、Pc-Crash软件仿真速度方法作对比,验证了本文提出的事故车速预估模型的有效性;并通过MATLAB仿真平台分析了行人抛出角、道路坡度及道路台阶高度对模型中事故车速值的影响。针对提出的车速预估模型,运用不确定度理论对各参数的不确定度和事故车速计算结果的不确定度进行了评定,得到事故车速最优取值范围,提高了本文建立的事故车速预估模型在参数无法精确获取时车速计算的精度;最后运用MATLAB数值校核、基于抛距的经验模型、Pc-Crash软件仿真验证了本文建立的事故车速预估模型和不确定度评定方法在车速估计中应用的可靠性及有效性。
[Abstract]:The political, economic and life activities of modern human society are closely related to the automobile. As well as positive effects, such as comfortable and convenient traffic, automobile also brings negative effects such as road traffic accidents. With the increasing number of road traffic accidents, especially automobile and pedestrian accidents, which not only threaten people's lives, but also cause huge economic losses and civil disputes. Therefore, the study of automobile and pedestrian accidents is very important. Vehicle and pedestrian collision accidents are the main types of traffic accidents in China. The fatality rate of these accidents is very high and is closely related to people's safe travel. However, the traditional accident analysis method is very difficult to deal with this kind of accident. Accident reappearance is a key link in traffic accident handling and a key research content in traffic safety field. In this paper, the vehicle and pedestrian collision accident in road traffic accident is taken as the research object, and the method of estimating the speed of the accident is used as the research purpose, aiming at the uncertain factors of the prediction model of the accident speed based on the throwing distance of the first drop place of the pedestrian. Using uncertainty theory, Pc-Crash simulation software and MATLAB simulation platform, the prediction model of accident speed is studied. The main work includes the following two aspects: on the basis of the related research, an accident speed prediction model based on the first drop distance of pedestrian is established; By using the simulation experiments and practical cases, this paper compares the calculation method of accident speed with several existing methods of accident speed estimation and the simulation speed method of Pc-Crash software, and verifies the validity of the proposed model. The effects of pedestrian throw angle, road slope and step height on the speed of accident in the model are analyzed by MATLAB simulation platform. The uncertainty of the parameters and the calculation result of the accident speed are evaluated by using the uncertainty theory, and the optimal range of the accident speed is obtained. The accuracy of the vehicle speed prediction model established in this paper is improved when the parameters can not be accurately obtained. Finally, based on the empirical model of throw distance, the reliability and validity of the accident speed prediction model and the uncertainty evaluation method are verified by using the MATLAB numerical verification method and the Pc-Crash software simulation.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.31
本文编号：2403317
[Abstract]:The political, economic and life activities of modern human society are closely related to the automobile. As well as positive effects, such as comfortable and convenient traffic, automobile also brings negative effects such as road traffic accidents. With the increasing number of road traffic accidents, especially automobile and pedestrian accidents, which not only threaten people's lives, but also cause huge economic losses and civil disputes. Therefore, the study of automobile and pedestrian accidents is very important. Vehicle and pedestrian collision accidents are the main types of traffic accidents in China. The fatality rate of these accidents is very high and is closely related to people's safe travel. However, the traditional accident analysis method is very difficult to deal with this kind of accident. Accident reappearance is a key link in traffic accident handling and a key research content in traffic safety field. In this paper, the vehicle and pedestrian collision accident in road traffic accident is taken as the research object, and the method of estimating the speed of the accident is used as the research purpose, aiming at the uncertain factors of the prediction model of the accident speed based on the throwing distance of the first drop place of the pedestrian. Using uncertainty theory, Pc-Crash simulation software and MATLAB simulation platform, the prediction model of accident speed is studied. The main work includes the following two aspects: on the basis of the related research, an accident speed prediction model based on the first drop distance of pedestrian is established; By using the simulation experiments and practical cases, this paper compares the calculation method of accident speed with several existing methods of accident speed estimation and the simulation speed method of Pc-Crash software, and verifies the validity of the proposed model. The effects of pedestrian throw angle, road slope and step height on the speed of accident in the model are analyzed by MATLAB simulation platform. The uncertainty of the parameters and the calculation result of the accident speed are evaluated by using the uncertainty theory, and the optimal range of the accident speed is obtained. The accuracy of the vehicle speed prediction model established in this paper is improved when the parameters can not be accurately obtained. Finally, based on the empirical model of throw distance, the reliability and validity of the accident speed prediction model and the uncertainty evaluation method are verified by using the MATLAB numerical verification method and the Pc-Crash software simulation.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491.31
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