事故条件下城市主干路交通拥挤态势预测及评估研究

发布时间：2019-02-09 18:14

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的不断推进,车辆保有量仍处于上涨态势,城市交通面临着严峻压力,与此同时,城市交通道路事故频发,造成交通拥挤,路网运行效率降低,给社会经济带来不利损失。面对城市复杂路网上的交通突发事故,疏堵减灾、减弱路网波及影响、维持路网交通流平稳有序运行成为亟待解决的城市交通问题,此问题解决需要对事故所引发拥挤的态势发展规律、影响范围及严重程度有清晰的认识和评估。本文在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,研究事故条件下道路拥挤产生和蔓延规律,分析影响拥挤态势发展的影响因素及其作用机理;针对城市主干路,研究事故发生后,偶发性拥挤在路网空间蔓延形成的影响范围的预测方法,并对相应交通状态下对交通拥挤态势严重度进行评估。首先,分析道路交通拥挤类型、拥挤特性和拥挤度量标准,研究事故条件下城市道路拥挤态势的影响因素,包括事故情景、实时交通环境、事发道路等级、事故发生位置、路网形态和主观驾驶行为等,分析各因素的影响机理,确定事故继发性拥挤产生的判别条件,并对论文研究的基本情景进行设定。其次,基于交通波理论和Van Aerde模型构建拥挤沿事发道路的蔓延速度预测模型,并根据主干路的交通功能和交通流特性,考虑事故占用行车道、车辆行驶过程换道行为及车流行经信号交叉口的影响对模型进行修正,给出模型计算流程及方法。再次,深入分析事故所引发拥挤在路网交叉口处的蔓延机理,基于拥挤蔓延速度预测模型,预测拥挤沿事发主干路蔓延的空间长度,设计案例,并利用VISSIM 4.3软件平台进行仿真验证,提取软件仿真参数,分析拥挤蔓延路段的交通状态特性;基于拥挤沿事发主干路的蔓延范围,制定事发主干路周边路网上道路接受拥挤判定的顺序和规则,选取拥挤判定指标并确定指标阈值,结合道路交通参数的获取及指标值计算,确定或预测交通拥挤在区域路网上的空间影响范围。最后,设计事故条件下道路交通拥挤态势的评估流程,建立拥挤态势评估指标体系,体系包括交通拥挤态势发展指标和后果指标,分别考虑事故拥挤蔓延速度和程度两个层面对拥挤态势的影响,利用模糊综合评价方法对道路交通拥挤态势严重程度进行综合评估,并判定拥挤态势等级。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the number of vehicles is still on the rise, and the urban traffic is facing severe pressure. At the same time, urban traffic accidents occur frequently, resulting in traffic congestion, and the efficiency of road network operation is reduced. Bring adverse losses to the society and economy. In the face of traffic accidents on the complex road network, it is an urgent problem to solve the urban traffic problems, such as blocking and disaster reduction, weakening the impact of road network ripple, and maintaining the smooth and orderly operation of road network traffic flow. To solve this problem, it is necessary to have a clear understanding and evaluation of the situation of congestion caused by the accident, the extent of influence and the severity. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the rule of road congestion generation and spread under the condition of accident, and analyzes the influencing factors and its action mechanism of the development of congestion situation. In view of the urban trunk road, this paper studies the prediction method of the influence range of accidental congestion in the road network space after the accident, and evaluates the severity of traffic congestion situation under the corresponding traffic condition. First of all, it analyzes the types, characteristics and metrics of traffic congestion, and studies the influencing factors of urban road congestion situation under accident conditions, including accident scenarios, real-time traffic environment, accident road grade, accident location. The road network shape and subjective driving behavior are analyzed, the influencing mechanism of each factor is analyzed, the discriminant conditions of secondary congestion are determined, and the basic situation of this paper is set up. Secondly, based on the traffic wave theory and Van Aerde model, the prediction model of the spread speed of congestion along the accident road is constructed, and according to the traffic function and traffic flow characteristics of the trunk road, the traffic lane occupied by the accident is considered. The model is modified by the change behavior of the vehicle and the influence of the traffic flow through the signalized intersection, and the calculation flow and method of the model are given. Thirdly, the spread mechanism of congestion caused by accident at the intersection of road network is analyzed in depth. Based on the prediction model of congestion spread speed, the spatial length of congestion spread along the main road is predicted, and the design case is given. Using VISSIM 4.3 software platform for simulation verification, extract the software simulation parameters, analyze the traffic state characteristics of congestion spread section; Based on the spreading range of congestion along the main road, the order and rules of acceptance of congestion judgment on the road network around the main road are established, and the criteria and threshold of congestion are selected, combined with the acquisition of road traffic parameters and the calculation of index value. Determine or predict the spatial impact of traffic congestion on the regional road network. Finally, the evaluation process of traffic congestion situation under accident condition is designed, and the evaluation index system of congestion situation is established, which includes the development index and consequence index of traffic congestion situation. Considering the influence of the speed and degree of traffic congestion spread on the congestion situation, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the severity of traffic congestion situation and to judge the degree of congestion situation.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U491

【参考文献】