万年闸复线船闸方案设计与评价

发布时间：2019-03-26 18:35

【摘要】：内河航运在我国交通运输系统中扮演着重要角色,京杭运河作为贯通南北的内河航运通道,对内河航运网络建设具有重要意义。船闸是内河运输航线上重要的基础设施,关系到航线的运输能力,京杭运河山东段万年闸船闸由于通过能力已达饱和状态,通过复线船闸的建设提高通过能力,是缓解万年闸船闸货运压力的有效手段。船闸作为重要的大型交通基础设施,其建设过程需经过严密论证,工程可行性研究是必不可少的环节。论文以万年闸复线船闸工程为背景,研究了船闸建设规模测算和风险评价问题。船闸建设规模测算的基础是对设计目标年过闸货运量的预测,论文按照“定量预测与定性修正相结合,多种预测模型综合考虑”的思路,采用灰色模型和回归分析模型分别预测设计水平年过闸货运量,将两模型预测结果组合得到过闸货运量定量预测结果,在分析相关政策规划的影响后,对定量预测结果进行修正,作为复线船闸过闸货运量最终预测结果,根据预测结果,参考相关规范,设计万年闸复线船闸建设规模。预计万年闸复线船闸2020年、2030年过闸货运量将分别达到4235万吨、4945万吨,当复线船闸单向通过能力为2900万吨时,能够满足设计水平年内过闸货运量的要求。风险评价能够对工程未来建设过程中可能面临风险的影响程度做出分析,指导风险防范方案的制订,对保障工程顺利进行有重要作用。但在实践中,风险评价过多依靠定性分析,理论性、科学性有一定欠缺。针对这一问题,论文分析了模糊综合评判法应用于复线船闸工程风险评价的适用性,从方法和问题的特点来看,该方法能较好地完成风险评价。运用模糊综合评判法对万年闸复线船闸工程项目风险和社会稳定风险两个方面、六个指标进行评价,得到风险综合评价结果,认为万年闸复线船闸工程风险评价等级为一般风险,各风险因素不影响项目的可行性。
[Abstract]:Inland river shipping plays an important role in the transportation system of our country. The Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, as the inland waterway connecting the north and the south, is of great significance to the construction of inland water transportation network. The ship lock is an important infrastructure on the inland water transportation route, which is related to the transportation capacity of the route. Because the passing capacity of the Wannian Lock in the Shandong section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal has reached the saturation state, the capacity of the ship lock is enhanced through the construction of the double-line lock. It is an effective means to relieve the freight pressure of the shiplock. As an important large-scale transportation infrastructure, the construction process of shiplock needs to be proved closely, and the engineering feasibility study is an essential link. In this paper, the scale calculation and risk assessment of ship lock construction are studied based on the project of 10,000-year-lock multiple-line ship lock. The basis of calculating the scale of ship lock construction is to forecast the cargo volume of the design target year by year. According to the train of thought of combining quantitative prediction with qualitative correction, and considering various prediction models comprehensively, the paper is based on the theory of "the combination of quantitative prediction and qualitative correction". The grey model and the regression analysis model are used to forecast the annual cargo volume of the design level, and the results of the two models are combined to obtain the quantitative prediction results. After analyzing the influence of the relevant policy planning, the results of the prediction of the two models are combined to obtain the quantitative prediction results. The quantitative prediction results are modified as the final prediction results of the cargo volume of the double-line lock. According to the prediction results and the relevant specifications, the construction scale of the multi-line shiplock of the ten-thousand-year lock is designed. It is expected that the cargo volume of the shiplock will reach 42.35 million tons and 49.45 million tons respectively in 2020. when the unidirectional passing capacity of the compound lock is 29 million tons, it can meet the requirements of the design level in the year of crossing the lock. The risk assessment can analyze the influence degree of the possible risk in the construction process of the project in the future, guide the formulation of the risk prevention plan, and play an important role in ensuring the smooth progress of the project. But in practice, risk evaluation depends too much on qualitative analysis, theory and science. In view of this problem, this paper analyzes the applicability of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method applied to the risk assessment of complex line lock engineering. From the point of view of the characteristics of the method and the problem, the method can complete the risk assessment well. In this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the two aspects of the project risk and the social stability risk of the Wannian Shiplock complex Lock Project, and the results of the risk comprehensive evaluation are obtained. It is considered that the risk evaluation grade of Wannian Lock complex line lock project is a general risk, and each risk factor does not affect the feasibility of the project.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U641.2

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