青藏公路多年冻土区路基病害易发性概率模型

发布时间：2019-04-04 20:44

【摘要】：为研究青藏公路多年冻土区路基病害的分布规律,探究路基病害与其影响因素之间的相互关系,定量计算各因子对路基病害的影响权重,最终达到预测路基病害易发性概率的目的,以青藏公路西大滩至唐古拉山约470km范围内多年冻土段作为评价路段,选取体积含冰量、年平均地表温度、路堤高度、路堤走向、天然地表植被覆盖度、地表径流6个影响因子,通过已有图件地理信息提取、路基设计资料数据统计分析以及现场调查的方式,充分收集各因子的原始属性数据。同时,制作评价路段所在工程走廊内的径流分布图,通过图件与实地调查相结合的方式明确径流与公路相交的地点,并获取2014年青藏公路评价路段路基沉降面积的实测资料,以影响因子为自变量,以实测路基病害数据为因变量,引入Logistic模型进行回归分析,建立多年冻土区公路路基病害易发性的概率模型,计算评价路段内每个评价单元的路基病害易发性概率。研究结果表明:该概率模型回归结果的正确率为76.3%;易发性概率小于15%的路段占28.62%,易发性概率大于50%的路段占5.59%;易发性概率高的路段主要位于北麓河至风火山之间(K3064~K3066、K3070~K3071)、风火山至雅玛尔河之间(K3084~K3086)、沱沱河至开心岭之间(K3161~K3165)、开心岭至通天河之间(K3171、K3176~K3182、K3185)、雁石坪至唐古拉山之间(K3246)。
[Abstract]:In order to study the distribution rule of subgrade disease in permafrost area of Qinghai-Tibet highway, explore the relationship between subgrade disease and its influencing factors, and calculate the influence weight of each factor on roadbed disease quantitatively. Finally, the predisposing probability of roadbed disease is predicted. The permafrost section of the Qinghai-Tibet highway from Xidatan to Tanggula Mountain is taken as the evaluation section, and the volume ice content, the annual average surface temperature, the embankment height and the embankment direction are selected. Natural vegetation coverage and surface runoff are six influencing factors. The original attribute data of each factor are fully collected through the extraction of geographical information of existing maps, statistical analysis of roadbed design data and on-the-spot investigation. At the same time, the runoff distribution map in the corridor of the project where the road section is evaluated is made, and the location where the runoff intersects with the highway is identified by means of the combination of map and field investigation, and the measured data of subgrade settlement area of the evaluation section of Qinghai-Tibet Highway in 2014 are obtained. Taking the influence factor as the independent variable and the measured subgrade disease data as the dependent variable, the Logistic model is introduced to carry on the regression analysis, and the probability model of the highway roadbed disease vulnerability in permafrost area is established. The roadbed disease susceptibility probability of each evaluation unit in the evaluation section is calculated. The results show that the correct rate of the regression results is 76.3%, 28.62% of the sections with the probability of vulnerability less than 15% and 5.59% of the sections with the probability of vulnerability greater than 50%; The sections with high probability of vulnerability are mainly located between the Beilu River and the Fengshan Volcano (K3064 / K3066, K3070 / K3071), from the Wind Volcano to the Yamal River (K3084~K3086), from Tuotuo River to Kaixinling (K3161~K3165) and from Kaixinling to Tongtian River (K3171, K3176 / K3182, K3185). Between Yanshiping and Tanggula Mountains (K3246).
【作者单位】：中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冻土工程国家重点实验室;中国科学院大学资源与环境学院;中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司;中国矿业大学深部岩土力学与地下工程国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(“九七三”计划)项目(2012CB026106) 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41401087) 中国科学院西部之光人才培养计划“西部博士项目”(51Y351211)
【分类号】：U418.5

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