基于面板数据的宁杭城际出行方式选择行为研究

发布时间：2019-08-03 06:39

【摘要】：随着中国城市群的快速发展,城际交通出行环境发生了巨大的变化,因此城际出行者也会不断地重建自己的出行习惯,这就要求建立动态模型研究城际出行者出行行为和预测城际交通需求.本文调查出行者在宁杭城际高铁开通前后两个时期的出行信息,并且引入状态依赖变量表征出行者之前选择结果对之后出行选择的影响,建立了基于面板数据的城际出行方式选择动态模型.模型结果表明,基于面板数据的动态模型比传统的基于出行者单次出行数据的模型拥有更高精度.同时本文根据宁杭城际出行背景设置三组政策变化方案预测出行分担率,结果表明,当选择环境发生变化时,传统模型会高估出行方式分担率的变化程度.以上结论能更好地服务于中国城际交通的规划.
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urban agglomeration in China, great changes have taken place in the inter-city traffic environment, so intercity travelers will constantly reconstruct their travel habits, which requires the establishment of dynamic models to study the travel behavior of intercity travelers and predict the inter-city traffic demand. In this paper, the travel information of travelers before and after the opening of Nanjing-Hangzhou inter-city high-speed rail is investigated, and the state-dependent variables are introduced to characterize the influence of the previous selection results on the subsequent travel choice, and a dynamic model of inter-city travel mode selection based on panel data is established. The results show that the dynamic model based on panel data has higher accuracy than the traditional model based on single trip data of travelers. At the same time, according to the background of Nanjing-Hangzhou inter-city travel, three groups of policy change schemes are set up to predict the travel sharing rate. the results show that when the selection environment changes, the traditional model will overestimate the degree of travel mode sharing rate. The above conclusions can better serve the planning of intercity traffic in China.
【作者单位】：江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院;江苏大学电气信息工程学院;
【基金】：国家统计局项目(2010LC53) 教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJA630152) 江苏省六大人才高峰项目(2011ZBZZ043)
【分类号】：U125

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