高速铁路对民航客运的影响分析

发布时间：2018-01-05 04:02

本文关键词：高速铁路对民航客运的影响分析　出处：《山东大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国大力发展高铁建设。国务院在2004年1月通过《中长期铁路网规划》。2008年,铁道部又根据国务院批准的《综合交通网中长期发展规划》对《中长期铁路网规划》做了进一步的调整。从一定程度上讲,高铁缓解了铁路运输压力,带动了沿路地区经济的发展。但是自从高铁正式投入运营以来,凭借其高准点率、高速、安全等优势对民航客运造成了巨大的冲击。由于各地高铁的开通使得民航的上座率急剧下跌,所占市场份额也在不断缩小,甚至有的航班被迫停飞。比如郑西高铁开通后,运行时间为两个小时,比民航多50分钟,其二等座票价为240元,机票为500元,凭借该优势,郑西高铁占据了绝大部分市场,春秋航空撤出了该路线的全部航班。为了应对由于高铁带来的客流量的减少,民航开始采用机票打折等方式与其竞争,因此研究我国高铁对于民航客运的冲击影响有重要意义。本文首先分析高速铁路和民航客运各自的发展状况,主要通过各自的发展史、特点以及现阶段发展情况给出分析。然后指出高铁与民航各自的优势,通过其优势来对其竞争进行分析,主要通过价格竞争、成本竞争和服务竞争这几个方面展开,分析影响乘客选择出行方式的因素：经济成本、时间、乘客主观效用和安全。然后引出空铁联运这一概念,并给出了国外机场空铁联运的发展现状和国内机场空铁联运的发展现状。接下来通过引入阈值回归模型来分析高铁对民航的影响,主要针对三个时间段进行研究,分别为高铁运行4小时以内、4-8小时、8-12小时。通过以北京-太原、上海-温州、广州-武汉、北京-上海、广州-郑州、杭州-青岛、成都-武汉、广州-重庆、成都-南京这些路段来分析高铁开通前后对民航客流量的影响。通过模型结果本文得出高速铁路的开通对于航空客运具有负面的挤出效应,并且该挤出效应根据耗费时间的长短在不同的路段上有不同的表现。短途运输中的挤出作用最为明显,中途客运中,航空客运发展对于高铁的出现有较强的抵御力,但也仅仅是保持高铁出现之前的航空客运量水平,增长速度接近零。长途客运中,航空运输显示了自身的优势,高铁的出现对其没有任何影响甚至出现了航空运输客运量在高铁出现之后仍然大幅增长的情况。由此可见,挤出效应与耗费时间成反比,中短途客运高铁对航空客运的挤出较大,但随着高铁运输时间的变长,航空客运的时间效率得到显现,特别是在一些地形复杂的区域,直线距离远远小于地面运输距离,高铁的运行速度下降,航空客运对于高铁的优势更加突出。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has vigorously developed the construction of high-speed railway. The State Council adopted the "medium and long term Railway Network Plan" on January 2004. 2008. The Ministry of Railways has also made further adjustments to the Medium- and Long-Term Railway Network Plan, which was approved by the State Council and approved by the State Council. To a certain extent, high-speed rail has alleviated the pressure on railway transportation. It has led to the development of the economy along the road. But since the high-speed rail has been officially put into operation, with its high punctual rate, high-speed. Safety and other advantages have caused a huge impact on civil aviation passenger transport. Due to the opening of high-speed rail in various places, the civil aviation attendance rate has dropped sharply, and the market share has also been shrinking. Some flights have even been grounded. For example, after the start of the Zhengxi high-speed rail, the operation time is two hours, 50 minutes longer than civil aviation, second-class ticket price 240 yuan, air ticket is 500 yuan, with this advantage. Zheng Xi high-speed rail accounts for most of the market, Chunqiu Airlines withdrew all flights on the route, to cope with the high-speed rail caused by the reduction in passenger traffic, civil aviation began to use discount tickets and other ways to compete with it. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of high-speed rail on civil aviation passenger transport. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development of high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger transport, mainly through their history of development. Then points out the advantages of high-speed rail and civil aviation, through its advantages to analyze the competition, mainly through price competition. Cost competition and service competition are carried out to analyze the factors that affect passengers' choice of travel mode: economic cost, time, passenger subjective utility and safety. Then the concept of air rail transport is introduced. It also gives the development status of air-to-rail transport in foreign airports and the development status of air-to-rail transport in domestic airports. Then the influence of high-speed rail on civil aviation is analyzed by introducing the threshold regression model. This paper mainly focuses on three time periods, namely, high-speed rail running within 4 hours and 8 hours and 8 hours and 12 hours respectively. Through Beijing-Taiyuan, Shanghai-Wenzhou, Guangzhou-Wuhan, Beijing-Shanghai. Guangzhou-Zhengzhou, Hangzhou-Qingdao, Chengdu-Wuhan, Guangzhou-Chongqing. Chengdu-Nanjing sections of these sections to analyze the high-speed rail before and after the opening of the impact on civil aviation passenger flow. Through the results of the model this paper concluded that the opening of high-speed railway for air passenger transport has a negative crowding out effect. And the extrusion effect is different in different road sections according to the time consuming. The extrusion effect is the most obvious in short distance transportation, in the midway passenger transport. The development of air passenger transport has strong resistance to the emergence of high-speed rail, but it is only to maintain the level of air passenger volume before the emergence of high-speed rail, and the growth rate is close to zero. In long-distance passenger transport, air transport has shown its own advantages. The emergence of high-speed rail has no impact on it, even air transport passenger volume in the high-speed rail after the emergence of the situation is still a significant increase. Thus, the crowding out effect is inversely proportional to the cost of time. Medium-and short-distance high-speed rail is more crowded out for air passenger transport, but as the time of high-speed rail transportation becomes longer, the time efficiency of air passenger transport becomes apparent, especially in some areas with complex terrain. The linear distance is far less than the ground transportation distance, the speed of high-speed rail is decreased, and the superiority of air passenger transport to high-speed rail is more prominent.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F532.3;F562.3

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