我国航空运输业碳排放峰值实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 05:21

本文选题：航空运输　切入点：碳排放　出处：《中国民航大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年7月8日,欧盟单方面通过了关于将航空业纳入欧盟碳排放交易体系(ETS)的法案。尽管该法案因为设置绿色贸易壁垒以及侵犯其他国家主权的嫌疑而遭到很多国家的反对,并且已被搁浅,但却促使各国在碳减排上加紧步伐。另一方面,中国民航总局在2008年发布的《民航行业节能减排规划》中也对节能减排的规划目标提出了量化要求,即到2015年我国民航单位产出能耗和排放比2005年下降15%。因此,本文的主要研究目的就是合理预测我国航空运输业的碳排放峰值,确立我国航空运输业的减排立场,提出减排方案的具体措施。首先本文对以往关于碳排放峰值以及运输量预测方面的文献进行梳理,在总结前人研究的基础上,针对民航业的行业特性,认为影响碳排放的两个因素为运输总周转量和燃油效率。然后对于运输总周转量和国际部分的周转量构建包含人均GDP、人口的ARDL模型进行预测;对于燃油效率,通过查阅相关资料、文献,设定关于技术效率、运营效率、生物燃油的3类情景假设。其次,通过情景分析法,发现只有在激进情景下,我国航空运输业总体和国际部分才会有峰值点。具体地,我国航空运输业的总体碳排放峰值为2049年的16455万吨,国际部分的碳排放峰值为2039年的4013万吨。最后本文根据激进情景下国际航空碳排放峰值情况,通过和美国国际航空近年发展情况的对比分析中,认为我国民航运输业碳减排形势较为严峻,应当立即着手在不同的层面,制定合理的减排措施,共同实现碳减排。
[Abstract]:In July 8th 2008, the European Union unilaterally passed a bill on the inclusion of the aviation industry in the European Union's carbon emissions trading system, despite opposition from many countries because of green trade barriers and suspicion of encroaching on the sovereignty of other countries. On the other hand, in 2008, the CAAC issued the "Plan for Energy Saving and Emission reduction in the Civil Aviation Industry", which also put forward quantitative requirements for the planning goals of energy conservation and emission reduction. That is to say, by 2015, the energy consumption and emissions per unit output of China's civil aviation industry will be 15% lower than that of 2005. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to reasonably predict the peak value of carbon emissions of China's air transport industry, and establish the position of reducing carbon emissions in China's air transport industry. First of all, this paper reviews the previous literatures on the peak carbon emissions and the prediction of transport volume, and summarizes the previous studies, aiming at the industry characteristics of the civil aviation industry. It is considered that the two factors that affect carbon emissions are total transport turnover and fuel efficiency. Then, the ARDL model including per capita GDP and population is constructed for the total transport turnover and the international turnover, and the fuel efficiency is predicted. By consulting relevant data, literature, setting up three scenarios about technical efficiency, operational efficiency, biofuel. Secondly, through scenario analysis, we found that only in radical scenarios, China's air transport industry will only have a peak point in the overall and international sectors. Specifically, the total carbon emissions of China's air transportation industry will peak at 164.55 million tons in 2049. The peak value of carbon emission in the international part is 40.13 million tons in 2039. Finally, according to the international aviation carbon emission peak under the radical scenario, through the comparative analysis of the development of American International Airlines in recent years, It is considered that the situation of carbon emission reduction in China's civil aviation transport industry is more severe, so we should immediately start to work out reasonable measures to reduce carbon emissions at different levels, so as to jointly realize carbon emission reduction.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F562

【相似文献】