基于历史数据的老龄飞机健康管理方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 06:36

本文选题：健康管理　切入点：老龄飞机　出处：《中国民航大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为运输类飞机的故障多发群体,老龄飞机引发的民航安全事故频频出现,如何科学、有效地评估和管理老龄飞机健康成为广泛关注的问题。为了提高老龄飞机在民航运输中的航空安全,减少老龄飞机维修保障的负担,本文在研究老龄飞机历史数据的基础上,结合老龄飞机常见的损伤类型,以提高老龄飞机适航安全性和维修经济性为目标,对老龄飞机健康管理方法展开深入研究。首先,对数据驱动的健康管理分析方法进行了深入的研究,包括基于时间序列模型、基于灰色理论、基于隐马尔科夫(HMM)模型和基于层次分析法(AHP)模型的分析方法,讨论了各类方法的特点及其适用的范围。其次,构建了老龄飞机健康管理指标体系,建立了健康裕度综合评估模型。初步选取了老龄飞机中5项一级健康指标和21项二级健康指标,利用SPSS软件经相关性分析和主成分分析后,构建了15项要素的老龄飞机健康管理指标体系。同时基于AHP分析法和1-9量化标度法,构造了指标的判断矩阵,确定了体系中指标的权重。并引入因素隶属度和健康裕度的概念,结合老龄飞机历史维修记录的数据,构建了健康裕度方程,建立了健康裕度综合评估模型。最后,设计和开发了老龄飞机健康综合评估软件,为老龄飞机的健康评估提供了信息化的支持工具。同时以某航空公司老龄飞机机队为例,将此软件应用于该公司老龄飞机的健康评估中,得到了目前老龄飞机机队所处的健康状态等级,且结果与实际情况相吻合,实现了软件中健康评估模块功能的验证。
[Abstract]:As a malfunction group of transport aircraft, civil aviation safety accidents caused by aging aircraft appear frequently, how to be scientific, To effectively assess and manage the health of aged aircraft has become a widespread concern. In order to improve the aviation safety of aged aircraft in civil aviation transportation and reduce the burden of maintenance and support for aging aircraft, this paper studies the historical data of aging aircraft. Combined with the common injury types of the aged aircraft, aiming at improving the airworthiness safety and maintenance economy of the aged aircraft, the health management methods of the aged aircraft are studied in depth. The data-driven analysis method of health management is deeply studied, including the analysis method based on time series model, grey theory, hidden Markov model (HMMM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model. The characteristics of various methods and the scope of their application are discussed. Secondly, the health management index system of aging aircraft is constructed. A comprehensive assessment model of health margin was established. Five first-grade health indexes and 21 second-class health indicators were preliminarily selected from the aging aircraft. The correlation analysis and principal component analysis were used to analyze the health margin of the aged aircraft by using SPSS software. Based on AHP analysis and 1-9 quantitative scale method, the index matrix is constructed, and the weight of index is determined. The concepts of factor membership and health margin are introduced. Based on the data of the historical maintenance record of the aged aircraft, the health margin equation is established, and the comprehensive assessment model of the health margin is established. Finally, the comprehensive assessment software for the health of the aged aircraft is designed and developed. It provides an information support tool for the health assessment of the aged aircraft. Taking the aging aircraft fleet of an airline as an example, the software is applied to the health assessment of the aging aircraft of the company. The level of health status of the current aging aircraft fleet is obtained and the results are in agreement with the actual situation. The function of the health assessment module in the software is verified.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：V267

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