空域容量评估与预测技术研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 13:05

本文选题：容量评估 + 容量预测　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：随着我国空中交通流量的不断增加,科学制定空中交通管制和空中交通流量管理决策的需求与日俱增,空域容量是空中交通管制和空中交通流量管理决策制定的重要依据,在此背景下,迫切需要完善现有空域容量评估方法,且对空域运行容量进行合理预测,以反映运行环境和条件改变下的空域容量变化,为空中交通管制和流量管理决策的制定提供科学依据。本文主要开展空域容量评估与预测技术研究。首先优化现有空域容量评估技术,完善机场和扇区静态容量评估方法和丰富容量评估结果,为容量预测提供更加科学的基准容量;然后,归纳和总结容量预测技术的方法体系,根据我国国情和实际运行需求,深入研究机场终端区和扇区运行容量预测技术,并进行实证研究。本文的研究成果面向我国空中交通管制和飞行流量管理体系建设的实际需求,对于合理利用空域资源,减少不必要的航班延误和保障运行安全,具有实际指导作用。本文主要研究内容和成果如下:(1)机场历史高峰服务能力评估方法。明确和规范了现有历史高峰服务能力评估方法中所用的参数,并采用多指标结合的方法验证历史高峰服务能力评估结果,机场历史高峰服务能力的评估精确化可以为机场容量的预测提供较好的基准。(2)管制员工作负荷与交通流的关联分析。研究管制员工作负荷与扇区交通流的关联,揭示管制员工作负荷与空中交通流的关联特点与内在规律,为管制员工作负荷的测量和扇区容量评估从微观规律出发建立宏观模型提供思路和研究基础。(3)基于管制员工作负荷的扇区容量评估方法。方法综合考虑了扇区内航路/航线结构,交通流时空分布和运行模式,管制员工作负荷与交通流的关联性,建立了扇区时段和瞬时容量与管制员工作负荷的关联,同时分析了扇区内交通流组织与扇区容量的关联,研究成果可为扇区容量预测提供基准信息。(4)强对流天气条件下容量预测方法。基于容量预测的方法分类从空域可用率、最大交通流、WITI、情景分类、管制员工作负荷限制和建模仿真六个方面总结了该领域的研究进展和现状,提出了每种方法的适用范围和优缺点,并就强对流天气条件下容量预测技术研究目前存在的主要问题和亟需改进的方面进行了归纳和总结。(5)多技术融合的机场和扇区容量预测技术。以容量评估结果为基准,在前期容量预测方法技术总结的基础上,针对我国管制运行的实际情况,结合WITI、情景分类、管制员工作负荷限制和建模仿真四种方法的评估特点,研究适合机场终端区容量预测的综合方法,并进行实证研究。论文较系统的建立了空域容量评估和预测的研究思路,研究并丰富了空域容量评估和预测的理论和方法,为空中交通管制和流量管理工作的开展提供了有力支撑。
[Abstract]:With the continuous increase of air traffic flow in China, the demand for making scientific air traffic control and air traffic flow management decisions is increasing day by day. The airspace capacity is an important basis for making air traffic control and air traffic flow management decisions.Under this background, it is urgent to improve the existing methods of airspace capacity evaluation, and make reasonable prediction of airspace capacity to reflect the change of airspace capacity under the change of operating environment and conditions.It provides a scientific basis for the decision making of air traffic control and flow management.This paper focuses on the research of spatial capacity assessment and prediction technology.First of all, optimize the existing airspace capacity evaluation technology, improve the static capacity evaluation methods and rich capacity evaluation results of airports and sectors, so as to provide a more scientific reference capacity for capacity prediction, and then summarize and summarize the method system of capacity prediction technology.According to the situation of our country and the actual operation demand, the prediction technology of airport terminal and sector operation capacity is deeply studied, and the empirical research is carried out.The research results of this paper are aimed at the actual demand of air traffic control and flight flow management system construction in China. It has practical guidance function for rational use of airspace resources, reducing unnecessary flight delays and ensuring operational safety.The main contents and results of this paper are as follows: 1) the evaluation method of airport historical peak service capacity.Defining and standardizing the parameters used in the existing methods for evaluating the service capacity of historical peaks, and verifying the results of the assessment of the service capabilities of historical peaks by the method of combining multiple indicators,The accurate evaluation of airport historical peak service capability can provide a better benchmark for forecasting airport capacity.) the correlation analysis between controller workload and traffic flow can be made.This paper studies the correlation between controller workload and sector traffic flow, and reveals the characteristics and inherent law of the correlation between controller workload and air traffic flow.For the measurement of controller workload and the evaluation of sector capacity, the method of sector capacity evaluation based on controller workload is provided for the establishment of macroscopic model based on microscopic law.Methods considering the route / route structure of the sector, the space-time distribution of traffic flow, the relationship between traffic controller workload and traffic flow, the correlation between sector time and instantaneous capacity and controller workload was established.At the same time, the correlation between the traffic flow organization and the sector capacity in the sector is analyzed. The research results can provide the reference information for the prediction of the sector capacity.The research progress and present situation in this field are summarized in terms of spatial availability, maximum traffic flow WITI-based classification, scenario classification, controller workload limitation and modeling and simulation.The applicability, advantages and disadvantages of each method are presented.In this paper, the main problems existing in the research of capacity prediction technology under severe convective weather conditions and the aspects that need to be improved are summarized and summarized. The multi-technology fusion of airport and sector capacity prediction technology is summarized and summarized.Based on the results of capacity evaluation, based on the technical summary of previous capacity forecasting methods, and in view of the actual situation of China's control operation, combined with the assessment characteristics of WITI, scenario classification, controller workload limitation and modeling and simulation, this paper discusses the evaluation characteristics of the four methods, which are as follows: 1.A comprehensive method for forecasting terminal capacity is studied, and an empirical study is carried out.This paper systematically establishes the research ideas of airspace capacity assessment and prediction, studies and enriches the theories and methods of airspace capacity assessment and prediction, and provides a strong support for the development of air traffic control and flow management.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V355

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