面向空管运行的定量安全风险评估

发布时间：2018-06-13 20:53

本文选题：空管安全评估 + TOPAZ　；参考：《南京航空航天大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着民用航空的高速发展,各大枢纽机场的航班吞吐量越来越趋于设计饱和,机场终端空域中航班流量急剧增多、密度越来越高,终端区内空管运行环境日益复杂。而在终端区内有限的空域中,经常存在航班流汇聚或交叉的情况,而这些汇聚或交叉点在大流量运行条件下将更容易产生飞行冲突等事故。因此,需要一种科学而定量的方法对大流量机场终端区的空管运行、尤其是容易产生冲突的热点区域进行安全性的仿真评估。本文根据机场终端区内航空器运行特点,对终端区内的航线汇聚点和交叉点进行仿真分析。选用TOPAZ安全评估框架,总结TOPAZ评估框架的评估流程与各流程中所常用的评估方法,并对该框架下的风险分析部分安全评估关键技术展开研究与讨论。本文创新性地利用动态着色Petri在复杂系统中强大的建模能力,构建了基于着色Petri网的航空器运行模型,并对航空器在终端区内的运行进行建模;根据汇聚点或交叉点的管制环境,建立飞行冲突风险模型,从而构建了一种全新的面向空管运行的定量安全评估方法。通过对上海终端区内大流量运行条件下的航班历史数据进行统计分析,得出航班过点时间分布与机型分布,根据不同的机型生成随机航班流,最终采用上述定量安全评估方法,利用蒙特卡洛仿真方法对模型进行仿真模拟,得出目标汇聚点与交叉点处的航空器运行冲突风险概率。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of civil aviation, the flight throughput of each major terminal airport tends to be more and more saturated, the flight flow in terminal airspace increases sharply, the density becomes higher and higher, and the operation environment of air traffic control in terminal area becomes more and more complex. In the limited airspace within the terminal area, there is often a convergence or crossover of flight flows, and these convergence or intersection points are more likely to cause flight conflicts and other accidents under the conditions of large traffic operation. Therefore, a scientific and quantitative method is needed to evaluate the safety of air traffic control in the terminal area of a large traffic airport, especially in hot spots where conflicts are likely to occur. According to the characteristics of aircraft operation in terminal area, this paper simulates and analyzes the route convergent point and intersection point in terminal area. TOPAZ security assessment framework is selected to summarize the evaluation process of TOPAZ assessment framework and the commonly used evaluation methods in each flow. The key technologies of risk analysis are studied and discussed in this paper. Based on the powerful modeling ability of dynamic colored Petri in complex system, the aircraft operation model based on colored Petri net is constructed in this paper, and the operation of aircraft in terminal area is modeled. According to the control environment of convergence point or intersection point, a flight conflict risk model is established, and a new quantitative safety assessment method for ATC operation is constructed. Through the statistical analysis of the flight history data under the condition of large traffic running in the terminal area of Shanghai, the distribution of flight passing time and aircraft type is obtained, and the random flight flow is generated according to different models, and the quantitative safety assessment method mentioned above is adopted finally. Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the model, and the probability of collision risk between the target convergent point and the intersection point is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V355

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