机场持续安全与发展的决策模型研究
发布时间：2018-12-15 07:50
【摘要】：在持续增长的客货运运量需求之下,航班起降架次也在不断攀升,而大多数机场管理者则更注重于机场的发展,忽视了对安全的承诺和责任,这将会在不远的将来导致机场的保障能力短缺或拥堵,不安全事件和事故频发,机场的发展受到阻碍,造成安全与发展的不协调现象。因此,为了实现机场的持续安全发展,需要对机场安全与发展复杂的动态关系进行探究,对其未来的发展状态进行预测和分析,需要构建一个科学合理的决策模型来为机场管理者进行决策时提供参考和依据。机场持续安全与发展系统涉及众多相互作用且关系复杂的变量,是个动态反馈系统,可以利用系统动力学的方法对此类问题进行研究。应用系统原理和思想,对机场持续安全与发展系统的动态反馈机制进行分析,选用“成长与投资不足”基模,构建了系统基模。在分析机场运营、能力和安全3个子系统的主要因素和因素间的因果反馈关系基础上,运用Vensim PLE建模工具建立了该系统的因果反馈关系图和系统动力学流图,构建了机场持续安全与发展的决策模型。选取了C机场的客观实际数据,对模型参数进行修正并赋值,并对模型进行了检验,仿真模拟结果表明2015年左右C机场保障能力将基本达到饱和,安全状态超出容许范围,阻碍了机场的发展,需要采取措施来协调发展和安全的问题。通过调节运营目标增长率和安全目标,设置了平衡增长和积极增长以及基础模拟3种决策方案,模拟仿真结果表明:机场的运营目标和安全目标可以改变机场未来的发展方式,平衡增长方案更适合作为改变机场未来发展方式的决策,使管理者能够协调安全和发展二者的关系,实现可持续的增长;积极增长方式中管理者对运营的投入超过了对安全的投入,实现了短期增长,但最终仍出现了安全状态较差以致发展受阻现象。3种方式分别给予了管理者在制定决策时的参考和依据,应参考平衡增长方案,不可只顾眼前利益。
[Abstract]:Flight take-offs and landings are also rising amid growing demand for passenger and cargo traffic, while most airport managers are more focused on airport development, ignoring commitments and responsibilities for safety. In the near future, this will lead to a shortage or congestion of airport support capacity, frequent incidents of insecurity and accidents, hindering the development of the airport, and resulting in an incongruous phenomenon between security and development. Therefore, in order to realize the sustained security development of the airport, it is necessary to explore the complex dynamic relationship between airport security and development, and to predict and analyze the future development state of the airport. It is necessary to construct a scientific and reasonable decision model to provide reference and basis for airport managers to make decisions. The airport continuous security and development system, which is a dynamic feedback system, involves a lot of interactive and complex variables, and can be studied by the method of system dynamics. In this paper, the dynamic feedback mechanism of airport sustainable security and development system is analyzed based on the principle and idea of the system, and the basic model of "growth and underinvestment" is selected to construct the basic model of the system. Based on the analysis of the main factors and the causal feedback relationship among the three subsystems of airport operation, capability and security, the causal feedback diagram and the system dynamics flow diagram of the system are established by using Vensim PLE modeling tool. The decision model of airport sustainable security and development is constructed. The objective actual data of C airport are selected, the model parameters are modified and evaluated, and the model is tested. The simulation results show that the security state of C airport will reach saturation and the security state will exceed the allowable range in 2015 or so. This hinders the development of the airport, and measures need to be taken to coordinate development and security issues. By adjusting the growth rate of operation target and safety target, three kinds of decision-making schemes, namely balanced growth and positive growth and basic simulation, are set up. The simulation results show that the airport operation target and security goal can change the future development mode of airport. The balanced growth scheme is more suitable as a decision to change the future development mode of the airport, so that the manager can coordinate the relationship between security and development to achieve sustainable growth; In the positive growth mode, managers invest more in operation than in safety, and achieve short-term growth. However, in the end, the security situation is poor and the development is blocked. The three methods give managers the reference and basis in making the decision, and should refer to the balanced growth plan, not only the immediate interests.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V351
本文编号：2380283
[Abstract]:Flight take-offs and landings are also rising amid growing demand for passenger and cargo traffic, while most airport managers are more focused on airport development, ignoring commitments and responsibilities for safety. In the near future, this will lead to a shortage or congestion of airport support capacity, frequent incidents of insecurity and accidents, hindering the development of the airport, and resulting in an incongruous phenomenon between security and development. Therefore, in order to realize the sustained security development of the airport, it is necessary to explore the complex dynamic relationship between airport security and development, and to predict and analyze the future development state of the airport. It is necessary to construct a scientific and reasonable decision model to provide reference and basis for airport managers to make decisions. The airport continuous security and development system, which is a dynamic feedback system, involves a lot of interactive and complex variables, and can be studied by the method of system dynamics. In this paper, the dynamic feedback mechanism of airport sustainable security and development system is analyzed based on the principle and idea of the system, and the basic model of "growth and underinvestment" is selected to construct the basic model of the system. Based on the analysis of the main factors and the causal feedback relationship among the three subsystems of airport operation, capability and security, the causal feedback diagram and the system dynamics flow diagram of the system are established by using Vensim PLE modeling tool. The decision model of airport sustainable security and development is constructed. The objective actual data of C airport are selected, the model parameters are modified and evaluated, and the model is tested. The simulation results show that the security state of C airport will reach saturation and the security state will exceed the allowable range in 2015 or so. This hinders the development of the airport, and measures need to be taken to coordinate development and security issues. By adjusting the growth rate of operation target and safety target, three kinds of decision-making schemes, namely balanced growth and positive growth and basic simulation, are set up. The simulation results show that the airport operation target and security goal can change the future development mode of airport. The balanced growth scheme is more suitable as a decision to change the future development mode of the airport, so that the manager can coordinate the relationship between security and development to achieve sustainable growth; In the positive growth mode, managers invest more in operation than in safety, and achieve short-term growth. However, in the end, the security situation is poor and the development is blocked. The three methods give managers the reference and basis in making the decision, and should refer to the balanced growth plan, not only the immediate interests.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V351
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