危险天气下扇区空域复杂度和容量

发布时间：2018-12-15 08:07

【摘要】：高度拥挤的空域中,危险天气快速变化且预报误差较大的条件下,预测扇区容量以及优化空域中交通流是非常复杂的问题。危险天气具有难以准确预报其强度和范围的特点,给危险天气下空域容量评估带来了困难,而空域动态容量的评估是有效实施空中交通流量管理的基础。目前基于航空器架次的空域容量评估方法很难映射出交通态势、扇区结构及管制员负荷之间复杂关系,运用复杂度评估空域系统运行能力已成为当前空中交通管理领域的研究热点。本文首先从复杂度来源角度,对空域复杂度进行分析和定义,总结了目前空域复杂度研究方法。针对危险天气下空域容量评估研究尚未形成成熟理论的现状,通过重点介绍航路利用率、最小割最大流、随机空域容量等方面的理论成果,尝试理清目前国外理论研究的范围与框架,指出了该领域未来的研究方向和存在的关键问题。其次,本文基于空域复杂度评估方法中的扰动分析思想,根据扇区运行实际情况,建立扇区、航班流、危险天气模型,采用调速法进行飞行冲突探测与解脱,定义空域复杂度计算方法,设计了复杂度可视化表示方法,对预测和降低空域复杂度提供支持。仿真结果表明,该方法能够反应出扇区交通态势微观特征,向空中交通管理提供了决策支持工具。最后,采用了最大流最小割扩展定理评估危险天气存在时扇区最大通行量,应用Folyd算法求解最短路径,确定扇区最大通行量。通过随机的多组天气数据,拟合回归危险天气覆盖百分比与扇区最大通行量的方程式和曲线。仿真结果表明,回归方程拟合准确度较高,对于预测危险天气对扇区的影响有一定借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In highly crowded airspace, the prediction of sector capacity and the optimization of traffic flow in airspace are very complicated under the condition that the dangerous weather changes rapidly and the prediction error is large. It is difficult to accurately predict the intensity and range of dangerous weather, which makes it difficult to evaluate the airspace capacity under dangerous weather. The assessment of dynamic airspace capacity is the basis of effective air traffic flow management. At present, it is difficult to map out the complex relationship among traffic situation, sector structure and controller load. The application of complexity in evaluating the operational capability of airspace systems has become a hot topic in the field of air traffic management. This paper firstly analyzes and defines the spatial complexity from the point of view of complexity source, and summarizes the current research methods of spatial complexity. In view of the fact that the research on the evaluation of airspace capacity in dangerous weather has not yet formed a mature theory, this paper mainly introduces the theoretical achievements in the aspects of route utilization ratio, minimum cut maximum flow, random airspace capacity, etc. This paper attempts to clarify the scope and framework of foreign theoretical research at present, and points out the future research direction and key problems in this field. Secondly, based on the idea of disturbance analysis in the method of airspace complexity evaluation, according to the actual situation of sector operation, the model of sector, flight flow and dangerous weather is established, and the speed regulation method is used to detect and resolve the flight conflict. The spatial complexity calculation method is defined, and the complexity visualization method is designed to support the prediction and reduction of spatial complexity. The simulation results show that the method can reflect the microscopic characteristics of traffic situation in sectors and provide a decision support tool for air traffic management. Finally, the maximum flow and minimum cut expansion theorem is used to evaluate the maximum traffic volume in the sector when dangerous weather exists, and the Folyd algorithm is applied to solve the shortest path to determine the maximum traffic volume in the sector. The regression equations and curves of the percentage of dangerous weather coverage and the maximum traffic volume of the sector are fitted by random multi-group weather data. The simulation results show that the fitting accuracy of the regression equation is high, which is useful for predicting the influence of dangerous weather on the sector.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：V355.1;V321.2

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