南水北调东线风险源评估与应急技术及物资筛选研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 20:40

本文选题：南水北调东线 + 风险识别　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：南水北调东线工程长江~洪泽湖段是东线工程南起始段,该区域水网地区河流交错,与输水干线互通,化工企业众多,环境敏感区与环境风险源叠置,运行过程中存在各种不确定性因素,可能导致输水系统破坏,引发供水危机。本研究以南水北调东线工程长江~洪泽湖段为研究区域,开展流域风险源的识别研究工作,评估环境风险源的危害程度和级别,对重点区域应急储备物资进行筛选、规划,建立基于Web GIS环境风险源评估及应急物资储备平台,实现风险源和物资储备点的直观可视化。通过调研,综合考虑风险源识别与评价的各种因素,基于改进的层次分析法构建南水北调东线工程长江~洪泽湖段企业风险源识别评价指标体系,包括风险源因素在内的3个约束层和风险源毒害性在内的9个指标层。进一步将识别与评价模型程序化,并对流域内22家风险源进行了识别评估,划分出4个风险等级并作出了风险标注。本文将应急物资的筛选融入应急处置技术筛选和评估的研究之中,设计了基于CBR-AHP-VIKOR建立环境污染应急处置技术及应急物资筛选体系。首先基于CBR原理进行相似案例匹配,检索出相似案例及其应用的应急处置技术。然后运用R-AHP对应急技术进行筛选,形成最佳的应急技术处置方案及对应的物资。最后,综合考虑物资的各个属性,基于多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)方法对应急物资进行筛选和评估,确定最佳的应急处置物资。以2009年江苏盐城标新化工“2.20”酚污染事件进行实例反演,计算结果表明该方法可以应用到现实的突发水污染应急处置中。以Visual Studio为主要开发工具,设计了基于Web GIS环境风险源评估及应急物资储备平台。平台包括系统管理、风险评估管理和物资筛选管理3项系统功能模块。以南水北调东线长江~洪泽湖段为示范区域,通过江苏盐城标新化工酚污染事件进行平台应用,结果表明本系统能够确定到流域内风险源等级,并可以直观的展示事故周边所需物资的储存位置,实现了洪泽湖区域风险识别及物资储备的可视化。
[Abstract]:The Yangtze River to Hongzehu section of the East Route Project of South-to-North Water transfer Project is the southern starting section of the East Route Project. The rivers in this area are interlaced with the main water conveyance lines, there are many chemical enterprises, and the environmental sensitive areas are overlaid with the environmental risk sources. There are various uncertain factors during operation, which may lead to the destruction of water delivery system and lead to water supply crisis. In this study, the Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of the East Route Project of South-to-North Water transfer Project is taken as the study area to carry out the research work on the identification of the basin risk sources, to assess the harm degree and level of the environmental risk sources, and to screen and plan the emergency reserve materials in the key regions. Based on Web GIS environmental risk source evaluation and emergency material storage platform, the visual visualization of risk source and material reserve point is realized. Through investigation and investigation, considering all kinds of factors of risk source identification and evaluation, based on the improved Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a risk source identification and evaluation index system for enterprises of Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of South-to-North Water transfer Project is constructed. Three constraint layers including risk source factors and nine index layers including risk source toxicity. Furthermore, the identification and evaluation model is programmed, and 22 risk sources in the basin are identified and evaluated, 4 risk grades are classified and risk tagging is made. In this paper, the screening of emergency materials is integrated into the study of emergency disposal technology selection and evaluation, and the establishment of environmental pollution emergency disposal technology and emergency material screening system based on CBR-AHP-VIKOR is designed. Firstly, the similar cases are matched based on the CBR principle, and the similar cases and their emergency disposal techniques are retrieved. Then R-AHP is used to screen the emergency technology to form the best emergency technology disposal scheme and corresponding materials. Finally, considering the properties of materials, the method of VIKOR-based multi-criteria compromise solution is used to screen and evaluate the emergency materials to determine the best materials for emergency disposal. Based on the example of "2.20" phenol pollution event in Yancheng Standard, Jiangsu Province in 2009, the calculation results show that the method can be applied to the emergency treatment of sudden water pollution in reality. With Visual Studio as the main development tool, the environment risk source assessment and emergency material reserve platform based on Web GIS are designed. The platform includes three functional modules: system management, risk assessment management and material screening management. Taking the Yangtze River to Hongze Lake section of the East Route of South-to-North Water transfer as the demonstration area, the platform application is carried out through the new chemical phenol pollution event in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. The results show that the system can determine the risk source grade in the basin. The storage location of materials needed around the accident can be displayed intuitively, and the risk identification and material storage visualization in Hongze Lake area can be realized.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X52;X824

【参考文献】