河北省工业碳排放特征分析及减排情景研究

发布时间：2018-06-04 11:14

本文选题：碳排放 + STIRPAT模型　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：化石能源消费是我国主要能源消耗,但其燃烧产生的CO2是造成温室气体和极端天气的主要原因之一。近年来,中国的化石燃料产生的温室气体长期高居世界第一位,且排放份额逐年增加。因此,抑制CO2气体排放是各个国家和地区都必须承担的责任。为有效的抑制CO2排放量,研究碳排放的趋势及未来发展情景就尤为重要。河北省作为工业大省,随着经济的飞速发展,工业碳排放不断增加。如何实现河北省工业的低碳化发展,节约能源,保护环境,促进河北省经济可持续发展具有重要的理论意义及现实意义。鉴于此,本文通过分析河北省工业能源消费状况和碳排放现状,应用STIRPAT模型及偏最小二乘回归模型对河北省工业碳排放进行因素分解及未来情景预测。本文主要的研究内容可归纳为以下三个方面:首先,对河北省工业现状进行了系统的分析。其中包括:工业经济发展概况、工业能源概况和工业碳排放概况。其中,对工业能源结构进行了分析并对未来趋势进行预测。其次,利用STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘方法对碳排放影响因素进行了实证研究。并对各影响因素重要程度进行了排序。最后,对各个影响因素的效果进行了分析及评价。最后,对河北省未来碳排放趋势进行情景研究和政策建议。一方面,对整体工业碳排放总量进行情景预测,设定3种情景,分别对不同减碳力度下的碳排放量与碳排放强度进行对比分析。另一方面,根据河北省工业行业减缓碳排放的重点领域,提出了针对河北省工业重点行业减排政策的建议。
[Abstract]:Fossil energy consumption is the main energy consumption in China, but the CO2 produced by its combustion is one of the main causes of greenhouse gases and extreme weather. In recent years, China's greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels have been ranked first in the world for a long time, and the share of emissions has increased year by year. Therefore, the suppression of CO2 emissions is the responsibility of all countries and regions. In order to effectively restrain CO2 emissions, it is particularly important to study the trends of carbon emissions and future development scenarios. Hebei Province as an industrial province, with the rapid development of the economy, industrial carbon emissions continue to increase. How to realize the low-carbon development of Hebei's industry, save energy, protect the environment and promote the sustainable development of Hebei's economy has important theoretical and practical significance. In view of this, this paper analyzes the status of industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hebei Province, and applies STIRPAT model and partial least square regression model to factor decomposition and future scenario prediction of industrial carbon emissions in Hebei Province. The main research contents of this paper can be summarized as follows: firstly, the industrial status of Hebei Province is systematically analyzed. Including: industrial economic development profile, industrial energy profile and industrial carbon emissions profile. Among them, the industrial energy structure is analyzed and the future trend is forecasted. Secondly, using STIRPAT model, partial least square method is used to study the influencing factors of carbon emissions. The importance of each factor is sorted. Finally, the effects of various factors are analyzed and evaluated. Finally, the future trend of carbon emissions in Hebei Province scenario research and policy recommendations. On the one hand, the total amount of industrial carbon emissions is predicted, three scenarios are set up, and the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity under different carbon reduction intensity are compared and analyzed respectively. On the other hand, according to the key areas of reducing carbon emissions in Hebei industrial industry, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the emission reduction policy of key industries in Hebei province.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F427;X322

【相似文献】