西部大开发以来甘肃省生态脆弱度变化趋势研究

发布时间：2019-05-14 06:04

【摘要】：甘肃生态是国家生态战略的重要组成部分。文章选择甘肃省作为研究区域,在对其生态脆弱性现状和影响因素分析的基础上,从成因—结果表现两个方面选取20个指标构建评价指标体系,基于2000~2013年自然和经济社会数据,采用层次分析法赋权和综合指数法来实现对甘肃生态脆弱性的综合评价并对西部大开发以来生态脆弱度变化趋势进行分析。结果表明:甘肃省生态脆弱度较高,整体呈逐年上升趋势,是社会、环境和经济等因素综合驱动的结果。不同时期脆弱度等级有所变化,但幅度不大,总体处于强、中度脆弱状态。最后运用灰色关联模型,发现生态脆弱度与贫困人数、荒漠化程度、水土流失治理面积、垦殖率等高度相关。
[Abstract]:Gansu ecology is an important part of national ecological strategy. In this paper, Gansu Province is selected as the research area, and based on the analysis of the present situation and influencing factors of ecological vulnerability, 20 indexes are selected from the aspects of cause-result performance to construct the evaluation index system, which is based on the natural and economic and social data from 2000 to 2013. The weight and comprehensive index method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to realize the comprehensive evaluation of ecological vulnerability in Gansu Province, and the changing trend of ecological vulnerability since the development of western China is analyzed. The results show that the ecological fragility of Gansu Province is high, and the whole trend is rising year by year, which is the result of social, environmental and economic factors. The degree of vulnerability varies in different periods, but the range is small, and the whole is in a strong and moderate vulnerable state. Finally, using the grey correlation model, it is found that the degree of ecological vulnerability is highly correlated with the number of poor people, the degree of desertification, the area of soil and water loss control, the rate of reclamation and so on.
【作者单位】：甘肃农业大学经济管理学院;南京农业大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：甘肃省社会科学规划重大招标项目“甘肃省建设全国重要生态安全屏障对策研究”(12ZD08)
【分类号】：X826;F127

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