模糊网络分析法在公路山岭隧道施工风险分析中的应用

发布时间：2018-01-20 18:02

本文关键词： 隧道工程高速公路山岭隧道模糊网络分析法风险分析　出处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2014年S1期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：公路山岭隧道施工过程中存在着许多不确定的风险因素,不仅具有随机性,还具有模糊性,目前已有的风险评价方法难以对其进行准确分析。通过建立集德尔菲法、模糊综合评判和网络分析法于一体的模糊网络分析法,将其应用于公路山岭隧道施工风险分析,在公路山岭隧道施工全过程分析基础上,建立公路山岭隧道施工风险评价指标体系。采用专家调查法对二级评价指标进行单因素评价,建立模糊关系矩阵,采用德尔菲法进行两两比较并用三角模糊数表示两两判断矩阵,基于网络分析法构造模糊加权超矩阵,通过计算超矩阵的极限矩阵求得权重向量,得到施工风险水平的评价。通过龙头岭隧道的实证研究,表明该方法是合理实用的,为今后类似工程的风险分析提供参考依据,保障施工安全,降低潜在损失。
[Abstract]:There are many uncertain risk factors in the construction of highway mountain tunnel, which is not only random, but also fuzzy. At present, the existing risk assessment methods are difficult to accurately analyze. Through the establishment of the Delphi method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and network analysis in one of the fuzzy network analysis. It is applied to the risk analysis of highway mountain tunnel construction, on the basis of the analysis of the whole process of highway mountain tunnel construction. The evaluation index system of highway mountain tunnel construction risk is established, and the fuzzy relation matrix is established by using the expert investigation method to evaluate the secondary evaluation index by single factor. The Delphi method is used to compare pairwise judgment matrix and triangular fuzzy number is used to represent pairwise judgment matrix. The fuzzy weighted hypermatrix is constructed based on network analysis, and the weight vector is obtained by calculating the limit matrix of hypermatrix. Through the empirical study of Longtouling Tunnel, it is shown that this method is reasonable and practical, which can provide reference for risk analysis of similar projects in the future, ensure construction safety and reduce potential losses.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学土木建筑工程学院;重庆市轨道交通设计研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171016)
【分类号】：U455.1
【正文快照】： 1引言隧道工程建设是一项高风险建设工程,在隧道工程施工过程中存在着许多不确定的因素,这些不确定因素是导致隧道工程施工过程出现风险的重要原因。其他隧道工程相比,公路山岭隧道隐蔽性、施工复杂性、地层条件和周围环境等的不确定性更为突出,大大增加了施工技术的难度和建

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