北京市交通事故数据研究与分析研判

发布时间：2018-01-30 19:24

本文关键词： 事故驾驶员特征数据分析　出处：《北京工业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，全国的交通安全形势日益严峻，交通事故中人员伤亡和财产损失惨重，因交通事故造成的死亡人数占各种事故的90%以上，远超其他事故和灾害造成的伤亡总和。虽然全世界范围内无论发达国家亦或是发展中国家，都在从事故预防、驾驶员培训中各个方面进行分析，并针对不同地方特点制定有针对性的法律法规，以及教育培训方法等各类措施。但交通事故仍不断给肇事者、受害者和家庭造成巨大伤害。本文首先从全市驾驶员数量、发生主动事故驾驶员数量以及事故驾驶员的基本年龄、驾龄进行统计，对本市事故、驾驶员情况进行总体情况分析，印证经验性结论正确性。而后对发生事故驾驶员组成进行分类统计，纵向分析事故驾驶员常规特征。最终整合数据通过制图、数据建模等方式发现本市事故和事故驾驶员特征。通过对数据、模型进行研究，分析数据结论的成因后发现，驾驶员的驾驶经验不足、驾龄短、年龄变化或驾驶重点车辆等这些因素，在通常交通管理中被认为易造成交通事故，但从数据上分析发现这些因素并不是造成交通事故的主要原因。对事故数据进一步挖潜，我们发现了引发事故的重点因素在于驾驶员驾驶时受到其他因素影响、超速驾驶等行为，，也发现了高速道路驾驶环境与一般道路驾驶环境明显不同的特点。通过研究为政策决定提供指导，和数据理论支持。改变传统事故预防模式，对发生事故多的人群加强监管力度，对易发生事故的情况进行重点教育。针对事故预防工作建立数据研判机制，完善事故预防体系，最终达到降低事故发生次数和减少对社会造成危害的目的。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the traffic safety situation in China has become increasingly serious, with heavy casualties and property losses in traffic accidents. The death toll caused by traffic accidents accounts for more than 90% of all kinds of accidents. Far more than the total number of casualties caused by other accidents and disasters. Although all aspects of accident prevention and driver training are being analyzed worldwide in both developed and developing countries. According to the characteristics of different places, the author makes specific laws and regulations, education and training methods and other measures, but traffic accidents continue to cause great harm to the perpetrators, victims and families. This paper first from the number of drivers in the city, the number of active accident drivers and the basic age of accident drivers, driving age statistics, the city accident, driver situation analysis of the overall situation. Verify the correctness of empirical conclusions. Then the composition of drivers accident classification statistics, longitudinal analysis of the characteristics of accident drivers. Finally, the integration of data through cartography. Data modeling and other ways to find the city accident and accident driver characteristics. Through the study of data and model, after analyzing the causes of the data conclusion, it is found that the driver's driving experience is insufficient, driving age is short, age change or driving key vehicle and so on. In general traffic management is considered to be prone to traffic accidents, but from the analysis of data, it is found that these factors are not the main cause of traffic accidents. To further tap the accident data, we found that the key factors causing the accident are driver driving by other factors, speeding and other behaviors. The characteristics of high-speed road driving environment and general road driving environment are also found. Through the research to provide guidance for policy decisions and data theoretical support. Change the traditional accident prevention model and strengthen the supervision of people with more accidents. In order to reduce the number of accidents and to reduce the harm to the society, we should set up a data study mechanism for accident prevention, perfect the accident prevention system and achieve the goal of reducing the number of accidents and reducing the harm to the society.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U491.31

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