基于CREAM的海上交通事故人因分析

发布时间：2018-04-03 08:47

本文选题：海上交通事故　切入点：人为失误　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着船舶向自动化以及智能化发展,航行环境和仪器设备对航行安全的影响有所减小,而人为操作失误的影响程度愈发明显。前不久,韩国“岁月”号客轮沉没,造成281人遇难,23人失踪,初步分析原因为船长临时改变航线以及装载系固不牢靠。据统计,80%的海上交通事故是与人为因素有关的,因此,研究人为失误及其影响因素,有利于降低人为操作失误的概率,增进船舶航行安全。传统的对海上交通事故的分析与预测多是围绕人、船、环境、管理等方面展开,虽然考虑的因素面面俱到,但是往往忽略了人为因素的主导地位,因此,本文将以人为因素为出发点,探讨引发海上交通事故中人为失误的机理。围绕这一出发点,文章首先分析了海上交通事故概况,讨论了人为失误的相关概念,得出海上交通事故中人为失误的影响因素,为下文的追溯分析打下基础；其次,参考现有的人为失误模型,结合海上交通事故的具体情况,构建了适合海上交通事故的人为失误模型；最后,对现有人因可靠性分析方法进行分析比较,将人的认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)引入海上交通事故人为失误的分析中,通过构建失误模式、前因分类表以及后果-前因追溯表,对人为失误的根原因进行追溯分析,并通过调查问卷的形式,获取效应影响指数,运用扩展法对人为失误的发生概率进行定量预测。运用CREAM法对“大舜”号海难事故进行追溯分析,分析结果与事故调查报告基本一致,证明CREAM法在海上交通事故人为失误分析中的可行性；同时,从人的认知行为过程角度,对“大舜”号海难事故进行定量预测,计算出人为失误的概率。对于失误概率比较大的人为失误,结合根原因的追溯分析结果,可以采取相应的应对措施,避免类似事件的发生。
[Abstract]:With the development of automation and intelligence of ships, the influence of navigation environment and equipment on navigation safety is reduced, and the influence of human error is becoming more and more obvious.Not long ago, the South Korean cruise ship "years" sank, killing 281 people and 23 people missing, preliminary analysis of the captain's temporary change of course and the loading is not secure.According to statistics, 80% of marine traffic accidents are related to human factors. Therefore, the study of human error and its influencing factors is helpful to reduce the probability of human error and improve the safety of navigation.The traditional analysis and prediction of maritime traffic accidents mainly focus on people, ships, environment, management and so on. Although the factors considered are all-inclusive, they often ignore the dominant position of human factors.Based on human factors, this paper discusses the mechanism of human error in marine traffic accidents.Focusing on this starting point, this paper first analyzes the general situation of marine traffic accidents, discusses the related concepts of human error, and draws the influence factors of human error in maritime traffic accidents, which lays the foundation for the tracing analysis below.Referring to the existing human error models and combining the specific conditions of marine traffic accidents, this paper constructs a human error model suitable for marine traffic accidents. Finally, the author analyzes and compares the existing human reliability analysis methods.The human cognitive reliability and fault analysis method is introduced into the analysis of human error in marine traffic accidents. The root causes of human error are analyzed retrospectively by constructing the fault mode, the antecedent classification table and the sequence-antecedent retrospective table.Through the form of questionnaire, the effect influence index is obtained, and the probability of human error is predicted quantitatively by the extended method.The CREAM method is used to analyze the shipwreck of Dasun. The result is consistent with the investigation report, which proves the feasibility of CREAM method in the analysis of human error in marine traffic accidents, and at the same time, from the perspective of human cognitive behavior,In this paper, the probability of human error is calculated by quantitative prediction of the shipwreck of Dasun.For the human error with high probability of error, combined with the results of the root cause analysis, the corresponding countermeasures can be taken to avoid the occurrence of similar events.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U698.6

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