水上交通复杂性测度研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 22:26

本文选题：水上交通复杂度 + 聚类分析　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着经济贸易的快速发展，我国水路货运量和货物周转量持续稳步增长，水上交通日趋繁荣。然而，水上交通流密集化、多样化和船舶大型化、高速化的发展，使得水域通航环境日趋复杂，船舶安全航行的风险不断增加，水上交通管理难度进一步增大。为了保障船舶通航安全，科学地认识水上交通流迫在眉睫。水上交通流理论是认识水上交通、指导水上交通管理的基础理论。复杂性研究是交通流领域近年来研究的热点和趋势，但目前在水上交通流领域，对交通流的复杂性和非线性等特征的研究还相对较少。而在水上交通快速发展的背景下，交通流的非线性和不确定性日益明显。因此，以复杂的视角重新认识水上交通流，深入研究水上交通流非线性和复杂性尤为必要。论文以水上交通流系统为研究对象，分析了水上交通流系统的复杂性，论证了水上交通流系统是一个复杂系统，并给出了水上交通流的认知复杂度和本质复杂度的定义。结合水上交通流复杂度的定义，分析了水上交通流的认知复杂性和本质复杂性，从不同的视角分别建立了水上交通流宏观复杂度模型（认知复杂度模型）和水上交通流微观复杂度模型（本质复杂度模型），通过模拟交通流验证了复杂度模型的有效性。本论文的主要成果可以概括为：一、论文通过分析水上交通流系统的复杂现象，从认知论和本质论两个角度出发，分析了水上交通流系统的认知复杂性和本质复杂性，并论证了交通流系统是一个复杂系统，提出了水上交通流认知复杂度的定义和本质复杂度的定义。通过本质复杂度与碰撞危险度（SCR）概念的对比分析，得到：本质复杂度概念包含了碰撞危险度的概念；通过与系统安全概念的对比分析，得到：无论是认知复杂度还是本质复杂度都是一种对水上交通流状态描述的指标，其目的是保障水上交通流系统的安全。二、水上交通流宏观复杂度模型论文以水上宏观交通流为研究对象，根据水上交通流认知复杂度的定义，构建了交通管理者视角下的水上交通流宏观复杂度模型。提出了水上交通流宏观复杂度计算的六个步骤：（1）运用聚类分析法，将运动特征相似、相对位置较近的若干船舶视为一个交通簇；（2）根据交通流的历史数据，建立交通流历史速度场；（3）计算交通簇内，交通簇的聚集复杂度；（4）计算由于交通簇速度异常，引起的速度特征复杂度；（5）计算由于交通簇位置偏离航道，，引起的密度特征复杂度；（6）以复杂度地图的形式展示水上交通流复杂度的空间分布。通过模拟交通流的验证表明，水上交通流宏观复杂度模型能够反映出区域交通流的认知难度的不同，并能用于识别区域交通流中的异常行为。三、水上交通流微观复杂度模型论文以船舶的避碰行为为研究对象，根据水上交通流本质复杂度的定义，建立了在本船视角下的微观复杂度模型，用于衡量在避碰的不同阶段，船舶之间相互影响的程度。（1）冲突复杂度模型，是在冲突阶段（相对距离大于1海里）衡量船舶之间相互影响的模型；它以相对距离、最小会遇距离（DCPA）和最小会遇时间（TCPA）为主要指标。通过多组实验表明，冲突复杂度模型不仅能够更好地为本船描述周围的交通态势，还能用于为寻找本船的避碰路径。（2）碰撞解脱模型，是在碰撞解脱阶段（相对距离小于1海里）衡量两船之间的相互影响；它通过考虑船舶的操纵性和避碰策略，构造出船舶危险区，根据船舶危险区重叠的比例表征船舶之间的相互影响。
[Abstract]:In recent years , with the rapid development of economic and trade , our country waterway freight volume and cargo turnover continue to grow steadily , the water traffic is becoming more prosperous . However , the water traffic flow is more and more complex , the risk of ship safety sailing is increasing , the difficulty of water traffic management is increased further . In order to guarantee the ship navigation safety , it is urgent to know the water traffic flow scientifically .

Water traffic flow theory is the basic theory to recognize water traffic and guide water traffic management . The complexity research is the hot spot and trend of traffic flow field in recent years . However , in the background of the rapid development of water traffic , the nonlinearity and uncertainty of traffic flow are more and more obvious . Therefore , it is especially necessary to understand the water traffic flow in a complex angle of view , and to study the nonlinear and complexity of traffic flow in water .

Based on the water traffic flow system , this paper analyzes the complexity of the water traffic flow system , demonstrates that the water traffic flow system is a complex system , and gives the definition of the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity of the water traffic flow . Based on the definition of the complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper analyzes the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow , and establishes the macroscopic complexity model ( cognitive complexity model ) and the water traffic flow microscopic complexity model ( essence complexity model ) of the water traffic flow from different perspectives . The main results of this paper can be summarized as follows :

Firstly , through analyzing the complex phenomena of the water traffic flow system , the cognitive complexity and the essence complexity of the water traffic flow system are analyzed from two angles of cognitive theory and theory of essence . The definition of the cognitive complexity and the definition of the essential complexity of the traffic flow system are presented .
By contrast analysis with the concept of system security , it is found that both the cognitive complexity and the essential complexity are an index to describe the state of the water traffic flow , the purpose of which is to guarantee the safety of the water traffic flow system .

II . Macro Complexity Model of Water Traffic Flow

Based on the definition of water traffic flow ' s cognitive complexity , the paper constructs the macroscopic complexity model of water traffic flow under the view of traffic manager based on the definition of water traffic flow cognitive complexity . Six steps are put forward :

( 1 ) Using cluster analysis method , the moving characters are similar , and some ships with relatively close position are regarded as a traffic cluster ;
( 2 ) establishing a traffic flow historical speed field according to historical data of the traffic flow ;
( 3 ) calculating the aggregation complexity of the traffic cluster in the traffic cluster ;
( 4 ) calculating speed characteristic complexity caused by abnormal traffic cluster velocity ;
( 5 ) calculating the density characteristic complexity caused by the deviation of the position of the traffic cluster from the channel ;
and ( 6 ) displaying the spatial distribution of the complexity of the water traffic flow in the form of a complexity map .

The simulation of the simulated traffic flow shows that the macroscopic complexity model of the water traffic flow can reflect the different cognitive difficulty of the regional traffic flow and can be used to identify the abnormal behavior in the regional traffic flow .

3 . Micro - complexity model of water traffic flow

Based on the definition of the essential complexity of the water traffic flow , the paper establishes a microscopic complexity model under the view of the ship , which is used to measure the degree of mutual influence between ships in different stages of collision avoidance .

( 1 ) Conflict complexity model is a model to measure the interaction between ships during the conflict phase ( relative distance is more than 1 nautical mile ) ;
Based on the relative distance , the minimum meeting distance ( DCPA ) and the minimum meeting time ( TCPA ) , it is shown that the conflict complexity model not only can better describe the traffic situation around the ship , but also can be used to find the collision avoidance path of the ship .

( 2 ) The collision detachment model is the measure of the interaction between the two vessels during the collision detachment stage ( relative distance less than 1 nautical mile ) ;
The ship ' s maneuverability and collision avoidance strategy are taken into consideration , and the ship ' s dangerous area is constructed , and the interaction between ships is characterized according to the proportion of the ship ' s dangerous areas .

【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U692

【参考文献】