时间序列分析在作业人员调控系统中的应用

发布时间：2018-06-18 21:40

本文选题：时间序列 + 线性回归　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：上海盛明港务有限公司由于码头现场操作人员人数众多、船期密集、作业箱量急剧上升,以往没有相关参考数据的情况下,根据经验来对人员进行调控的方式,给管理者带来巨大的分配压力,造成各班组作业工时差异较大,不能满足港口现场人员管理的要求。因此,需要对现场工作人员科学合理进行调控。为了避免各班作业箱量差距增大,提高现场操作人员业务水平,以船舶的作业时长为辅助依据,通过时间序列预测给出每个班组未来作业箱量的发展趋势。这样,既能反映出每个班组现场工作的总体水平和现状,又能表现出各班组业务完成情况的发展及变化规律,解决了以往很难合理安排作业人员出勤、工时不平衡、班组总体业务水平提高困难的问题。首先讨论了上海盛明港务有限公司现场作业人员管理混乱的现状以及对现场作业人员调控手段的不足,明确了应用时间序列预测法来分析数据的调控系统的开发,对企业的生产和发展具有重要意义。在此基础上讨论安排出勤、出勤人员登记、作业箱量查询等主要功能,分析了作业人员派工、作业箱量分类汇总等核心流程。然后对人员安排、统计分析等核心子系统进行详细设计。重点讨论了采用基于时间序列的数据挖掘分析方法给出各班作业箱量的趋势,以及使用线性回归法预测出船舶从开工到完工所需的时间,作为辅助调控依据的过程,达到平衡工时的目的。最后,对系统的扩展性、多效性以及投资效益和未来的前景进行简要分析。
[Abstract]:Shanghai Sheng Ming Port Co., Ltd. has a large number of dock operators, dense shipping time and a sharp rise in the volume of operation boxes. In the past without relevant reference data, the way to regulate the personnel according to experience has brought great pressure on the managers, and the different work hours are different and can not meet the port. Therefore, it is necessary to regulate the field staff scientifically and rationally. In order to avoid the large gap in the volume of the work box, improve the operating level of the operators, and take the length of the working time of the ship as the auxiliary basis, the development trend of the future operation box of each class group is predicted by the time series. The overall level and present situation of the work in each group can be reflected, and the development and changing rules of the completion of each group's business can be shown. It is difficult to arrange the workers' attendance, the unbalanced working hours and the difficulties in improving the overall business level of the group. First, the field workers in Shanghai Sheng Ming Port Co., Ltd. have been discussed. The current situation of management confusion and the lack of control means for field workers, it is clear that the application of time series prediction method to analyze the development of the control system of data is of great significance to the production and development of the enterprise. On this basis, it discusses the main functions such as arranging attendance, registration of attendance, inquiry of operation box and so on. The core subsystems, such as the personnel assignment, the volume classification and summary of the operation box, are then designed in detail. The trend of using the data mining analysis method based on time series is discussed, and the time required by the linear regression method to predict the ship's completion from the start to completion is discussed. As a basis for auxiliary control, the purpose of balancing the work time is achieved. Finally, a brief analysis of the expansibility, pleioties, investment benefits and future prospects of the system is made.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U691;TP311.52

【参考文献】