基于层次分析—灰色理论的隧道施工风险评价
发布时间：2018-09-18 08:39
【摘要】：隧道工程地质条件复杂多变、不可预见因素较多,结构有着其独有的特殊性,与地面结构施工相差甚远,正因为隧道施工时受到地质条件、现代技术以及管理水平等多方面的影响,国内外隧道施工造成周边结构破坏以及重大生命财产损失的事故屡屡发生。为了确保隧道工程建设目标实现的同时减少工程事故,对拟建和在建的隧道工程施工风险进行评价,既而进行风险控制十分必要。以隧道工程施工中的风险控制为案例,针对隧道的特点从人的因素、物的因素、环境因素、管理因素确定了隧道施工风险评价指标。在此基础上运用层次分析法确定了评价各指标的权重,利用灰色系统理论构建了综合评价模型,并以来马高速公路中小明山隧道工程为例运用此评价模型进行了风险评价。根据评价结果,提出了相应的风险应对措施。基于隧道施工涉及因素众多,存在许多不确定性等特点,在对比几种分析方法后选用层次分析法进行风险评价,由于层次分析计算结果较粗略,但结合灰色理论评价法建立的综合评价模型可以取得较好的效果。通过对隧道施工风险因素的识别以及根据构建评价指标的原则,建立了隧道施工风险评价指标体系。指标体系包括目标层、准则层以及指标层,利用层次分析法确定了每个因素的权重,其中准则层中人的因素占的权重最大；指标层中个人能力、现场组织能力及管理制度以及施工现场的自然环境占的权重较大。针对来马高速隧道工程中小明山隧道实际情况,运用建立的层次分析灰色理论综合评价模型进行了风险评价,得到综合评价值为3.527,介于一般风险和较高风险之间,并倾向于较高风险。单独分析四个影响因素的风险状况,也都处于一般风险和较高风险之间,从而得到小明山隧道工程总风险评价结果的合理性。根据准则层的四个因素对隧道施工风险总体风险的贡献程度可以看出人的因素占主导地位,因此,在制定应对措施时应重点考虑。同时,其他三个方面的因素影响也不容忽视,对隧道施工风险的管理应以“预防为主,积极规避,合理转移”为指导思想。
[Abstract]:The geological conditions of tunnel engineering are complex and changeable, and there are many unpredictable factors. The structure has its unique particularity, which is far from the ground structure construction. It is precisely because the tunnel is subjected to geological conditions during the tunnel construction. Due to the influence of modern technology and management level, the accidents caused by tunnel construction at home and abroad have caused damage to the surrounding structures and great loss of life and property. In order to ensure the realization of the goal of tunnel construction and reduce engineering accidents, it is necessary to carry out risk control to evaluate the construction risks of the proposed and ongoing tunnel projects. Taking the risk control in tunnel construction as an example, the risk evaluation index of tunnel construction is determined according to the characteristics of tunnel from human factor, material factor, environment factor and management factor. On this basis, the weight of each evaluation index is determined by AHP, and the comprehensive evaluation model is constructed by using the grey system theory, and the risk evaluation model is used to evaluate the risk of the small and medium-sized Mingshan tunnel project of the Ma Expressway as an example. According to the evaluation results, the corresponding risk countermeasures are put forward. Based on the characteristics of many factors involved in tunnel construction and many uncertainties, the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to evaluate the risk after comparing several analytical methods. But the comprehensive evaluation model based on grey theory can achieve good results. Based on the identification of tunnel construction risk factors and the principle of constructing evaluation index, the evaluation index system of tunnel construction risk is established. The index system includes target layer, criterion layer and index layer. The weight of each factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in which the human factor occupies the largest weight in the criterion layer, and the individual ability in the index layer. Site organization and management system and the construction site of the natural environment account for a large weight. In view of the actual situation of small and medium-sized Mingshan Tunnel in Laima High Speed Tunnel Project, the comprehensive evaluation model of AHP grey theory is used to evaluate the risk. The comprehensive evaluation value is 3.527, which is between the general risk and the higher risk. And tend to be riskier. By analyzing the risk condition of the four influencing factors separately, all of them are between the general risk and the higher risk, thus the rationality of the overall risk evaluation results of Xiaoming Mountain Tunnel Project is obtained. According to the contribution of four factors to the overall risk of tunnel construction risk, it can be seen that the human factor is the dominant factor. Therefore, the countermeasures should be taken into account. At the same time, the influence of other three factors can not be ignored. The management of tunnel construction risk should be guided by "prevention, active evasion and reasonable transfer".
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U455.1
本文编号：2247358
[Abstract]:The geological conditions of tunnel engineering are complex and changeable, and there are many unpredictable factors. The structure has its unique particularity, which is far from the ground structure construction. It is precisely because the tunnel is subjected to geological conditions during the tunnel construction. Due to the influence of modern technology and management level, the accidents caused by tunnel construction at home and abroad have caused damage to the surrounding structures and great loss of life and property. In order to ensure the realization of the goal of tunnel construction and reduce engineering accidents, it is necessary to carry out risk control to evaluate the construction risks of the proposed and ongoing tunnel projects. Taking the risk control in tunnel construction as an example, the risk evaluation index of tunnel construction is determined according to the characteristics of tunnel from human factor, material factor, environment factor and management factor. On this basis, the weight of each evaluation index is determined by AHP, and the comprehensive evaluation model is constructed by using the grey system theory, and the risk evaluation model is used to evaluate the risk of the small and medium-sized Mingshan tunnel project of the Ma Expressway as an example. According to the evaluation results, the corresponding risk countermeasures are put forward. Based on the characteristics of many factors involved in tunnel construction and many uncertainties, the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to evaluate the risk after comparing several analytical methods. But the comprehensive evaluation model based on grey theory can achieve good results. Based on the identification of tunnel construction risk factors and the principle of constructing evaluation index, the evaluation index system of tunnel construction risk is established. The index system includes target layer, criterion layer and index layer. The weight of each factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in which the human factor occupies the largest weight in the criterion layer, and the individual ability in the index layer. Site organization and management system and the construction site of the natural environment account for a large weight. In view of the actual situation of small and medium-sized Mingshan Tunnel in Laima High Speed Tunnel Project, the comprehensive evaluation model of AHP grey theory is used to evaluate the risk. The comprehensive evaluation value is 3.527, which is between the general risk and the higher risk. And tend to be riskier. By analyzing the risk condition of the four influencing factors separately, all of them are between the general risk and the higher risk, thus the rationality of the overall risk evaluation results of Xiaoming Mountain Tunnel Project is obtained. According to the contribution of four factors to the overall risk of tunnel construction risk, it can be seen that the human factor is the dominant factor. Therefore, the countermeasures should be taken into account. At the same time, the influence of other three factors can not be ignored. The management of tunnel construction risk should be guided by "prevention, active evasion and reasonable transfer".
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U455.1
【参考文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 马小锋;水底隧道风险评估体系及施工风险评估研究[D];西南交通大学;2009年
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