高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值界定及交通冲突量预测

发布时间：2019-02-21 15:47

【摘要】：分析了高速公路施工区合流行为特性,以行车速度与合流角度作为合流交通冲突的表征参数,以冲突时间作为合流冲突风险的度量指标,建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突风险计算模型,确定了高速公路施工区不同安全状态的合流冲突风险阈值.运用灰色理论建立了高速公路施工区合流冲突预测的GM(1,1)模型,并通过合流冲突调查样本数据对该模型进行验证.结果表明:不同安全状态下的高速公路施工区合流冲突风险阈值危险、中等、安全分别为(∞,5)km/h、(3.55,5]km/h和(0,3.55]km/h;GM(1,1)高速公路施工区合流交通冲突量预测模型有效、可靠,满足精度要求.
[Abstract]:The characteristics of confluence behavior in expressway construction area are analyzed. The angle of traffic speed and confluence is taken as the representation parameter of confluence traffic conflict, and the conflict time is taken as the measure index of confluence conflict risk. The calculation model of confluence conflict risk in expressway construction area is established, and the threshold value of confluence conflict risk in different safety state of expressway construction area is determined. The GM (1 / 1) model for prediction of confluence conflict in expressway construction area is established by using grey theory, and the model is verified by the sample data of confluence conflict investigation. The results show that the risk threshold of confluence conflict in expressway construction area under different safety conditions is moderate, and the safety is (鈭，

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