设计洪水峰量最可能组合法的计算通式

发布时间：2018-03-07 07:23

本文选题：设计洪水　切入点：联合重现期　出处：《工程科学与技术》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：对于传统的多变量分析方法,给定某一联合重现期,满足防洪标准的峰量组合形式有无数多种,但不同联合设计值得到的洪水过程线及水库最高调洪水位均存在较大的差异,如何在联合重现期水平下选取合理的设计值尤为关键。本文利用Copula函数建立洪峰与不同时段洪量的多变量联合分布,采用OR重现期作为防洪标准,联合概率密度函数值作为洪水发生相对可能性的度量指标;以满足防洪标准为约束条件,构建峰量最可能组合的通用模型,并通过拉格朗日乘数法进行求解。采用最可能组合方法分别计算了汉江流域丹江口水库的3维和4维最可能联合设计值,并与单变量同频率法、多变量同频率法设计值对比。结果表明:单变量同频率设计值达不到防洪标准,其假设洪峰与洪量完全相关,各个洪水特征量均采用单变量概率分布来描述,未能充分考虑各个特征量的内在相关性,并不符合汛期洪水发生的内在规律;最可能组合法与多变量同频率法相比,洪峰偏小,长历时洪量偏大,丹江口水库具有多年调节能力,洪量起主要作用,所以最可能组合法推求的设计洪水结果偏安全。峰量最可能设计值更符合丹江口水库的应用要求,因此,本文所提方法具有较强的统计基础,更加符合水文现象的内在规律,可用于水库设计洪水计算。
[Abstract]:For the traditional multivariable analysis method, given a combined recurrence period, there are numerous forms of peak and volume combination to meet the flood control standard, but there are great differences in the flood process lines and the highest flood water level of the reservoir, which are worthy of different joint design. How to select reasonable design value at the level of combined recurrence period is very important. In this paper, the multivariable joint distribution of flood volume between Hong Feng and different periods of time is established by using Copula function, and OR recurrence period is used as flood control standard. The joint probability density function value is used as a measure of the relative probability of flood occurrence, and a general model of the most likely combination of peak values is constructed with the constraint condition of meeting flood control standards. Using the Lagrange multiplier method, the most probable design values of the Danjiangkou reservoir in the Hanjiang River basin are calculated by using the most probable combination method, and the same frequency method as the single variable method is used to calculate the three and four dimensional most likely joint design values of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in the Hanjiang River Basin. The results show that the design value of single variable and frequency is not up to the flood control standard, the assumption of Hong Feng is completely related to flood quantity, and each characteristic quantity of flood is described by single variable probability distribution. Failure to fully consider the inherent correlation of each characteristic quantity does not accord with the inherent law of flood occurrence in flood season, the most likely combination method is smaller than the multivariable same frequency method, and the flood volume of long duration is larger than that of the multivariate combination method. The Danjiangkou reservoir has the ability to regulate for many years and the flood quantity plays the main role, so it is most likely that the design flood result derived by the combination method is more safe. The peak value is more likely to meet the requirements of the application of Danjiangkou reservoir. The method proposed in this paper has a strong statistical basis and is more consistent with the inherent law of hydrological phenomena and can be used for reservoir design flood calculation.
【作者单位】：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(51539009) 十三五国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0402206)
【分类号】：TV122.3

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