灰色预测决策模型及其在黄河冰凌灾害风险管理中的应用
发布时间：2018-10-12 14:16
【摘要】：针对冰凌灾害水文水资源系统中随机性、模糊性和灰色性共存的问题,建立基于灰信息的预测与决策模型,并结合黄河流域宁蒙段实际数据,系统地分析冰凌灾害的数据特征,研究灰色预测和决策模型在解决冰凌灾害风险管理问题上的可行性及有效性。首先,通过先将区间灰数进行标准化处理,分解成实数形式的“白部”和“灰部”后,进行预测.再将已知的白化权函数映射为[0,1]上的函数,并用函数的面积和重心估计出预测值的白化权函数.其次,通过分析偏差测度矩阵和灰关联测度矩阵的区别和联系,提出综合偏差-关联测度矩阵,给出了基于灰数信息的多目标局势决策中目标权重确定的两种方法.再次,针对灰色多阶段多属性风险型群决策问题,研究了其决策方法。该方法利用分析技巧和相离度理论确定阶段内决策者权重,采用灰色关联方法确定属性权重,而后建立多目标优化模型,求出时间权重表达式,确定方案的综合评价值。最后,将灰色局势决策模型应用于黄河防汛物资的生产和管理实例中,验证其有效性和实用性。并分析和研究了黄河宁蒙河段巴彦高勒站凌期风险。对其凌期日均流量进行预测,将径流量预测值限制在一个区间带上,此区间带由下界、上界和最大可能点构成,且预测结果精度较高.进而对黄河宁蒙河段巴彦高勒站的风险进行评估。结果表明:2003-2012年间黄河宁蒙段巴彦高勒冰凌灾害的风险呈现一定的波动特征,但总体趋势保持平稳,预计2013-2015年,冰凌灾害风险度有下降趋势。
[Abstract]:Aiming at the coexistence of randomness, fuzziness and grey in the hydrological and water resources system of ice disaster, a prediction and decision model based on grey information is established, and the data characteristics of ice disaster are systematically analyzed in combination with the actual data of Ningmeng section of the Yellow River basin. The feasibility and effectiveness of grey prediction and decision model in ice disaster risk management are studied. First of all, the interval grey number is standardized and decomposed into "white part" and "grey part" in real number form, and then predicted. Then the known whitening weight function is mapped to the function on [0], and the whitening weight function of the predicted value is estimated by using the area and center of gravity of the function. Secondly, by analyzing the difference and relation between the deviation measure matrix and the grey correlation measure matrix, this paper puts forward the comprehensive deviation and association measure matrix, and gives two methods to determine the target weight in the multi-objective situation decision-making based on the grey number information. Thirdly, the decision-making method of grey multi-stage multi-attribute group decision-making is studied. In this method, the weight of decision makers is determined by using the analytical technique and the theory of divergence degree, and the attribute weight is determined by the grey correlation method. Then, the multi-objective optimization model is established, and the expression of the time weight is obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation value of the scheme is determined. Finally, the grey situation decision model is applied to the production and management of flood control materials of the Yellow River to verify its validity and practicability. The transit risk of Bayangol station in Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is analyzed and studied. The average daily runoff during transit is predicted by limiting the runoff prediction value to an interval zone, which is composed of lower bound, upper bound and maximum possible point, and the accuracy of the prediction results is high. Then the risk of Bayangol station in the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is evaluated. The results show that the risk of Bayangol ice disaster in Ningmeng section of the Yellow River from 2003 to 2012 shows certain fluctuation characteristics, but the overall trend remains stable, and the risk degree of ice disaster is expected to decrease from 2013 to 2015.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV875;N941.5
本文编号：2266435
[Abstract]:Aiming at the coexistence of randomness, fuzziness and grey in the hydrological and water resources system of ice disaster, a prediction and decision model based on grey information is established, and the data characteristics of ice disaster are systematically analyzed in combination with the actual data of Ningmeng section of the Yellow River basin. The feasibility and effectiveness of grey prediction and decision model in ice disaster risk management are studied. First of all, the interval grey number is standardized and decomposed into "white part" and "grey part" in real number form, and then predicted. Then the known whitening weight function is mapped to the function on [0], and the whitening weight function of the predicted value is estimated by using the area and center of gravity of the function. Secondly, by analyzing the difference and relation between the deviation measure matrix and the grey correlation measure matrix, this paper puts forward the comprehensive deviation and association measure matrix, and gives two methods to determine the target weight in the multi-objective situation decision-making based on the grey number information. Thirdly, the decision-making method of grey multi-stage multi-attribute group decision-making is studied. In this method, the weight of decision makers is determined by using the analytical technique and the theory of divergence degree, and the attribute weight is determined by the grey correlation method. Then, the multi-objective optimization model is established, and the expression of the time weight is obtained, and the comprehensive evaluation value of the scheme is determined. Finally, the grey situation decision model is applied to the production and management of flood control materials of the Yellow River to verify its validity and practicability. The transit risk of Bayangol station in Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is analyzed and studied. The average daily runoff during transit is predicted by limiting the runoff prediction value to an interval zone, which is composed of lower bound, upper bound and maximum possible point, and the accuracy of the prediction results is high. Then the risk of Bayangol station in the Ningmeng reach of the Yellow River is evaluated. The results show that the risk of Bayangol ice disaster in Ningmeng section of the Yellow River from 2003 to 2012 shows certain fluctuation characteristics, but the overall trend remains stable, and the risk degree of ice disaster is expected to decrease from 2013 to 2015.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TV875;N941.5
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 罗党,刘思峰;一类灰色群决策问题的分析方法[J];南京航空航天大学学报;2005年03期
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