基于SWAT模型的泗河流域气候及土地利用变化的水文响应研究

发布时间：2018-11-11 19:44

【摘要】：本文以泗河流域为研究区,采用SWAT构建流域模型,经过模型敏感性分析和适用性评价,将校准好的模型应用到泗河流域陆水相互作用研究中。具体研究思路为：一是设置未来不同气候变化情景来讨论气候变化引起的流域径流变化趋势,即气候变化(主要指气温和降雨两个因素的变化)与水文响应关系；二是对比分析不同时期土地利用情况下的径流变化趋势,即土地利用变化与水文响应关系。在此基础上,对比分析气候因素与土地利用因素对流域径流的影响程度,探讨研究流域水文循环过程以及驱动机理,为泗河流域水资源保护与生态建设工作提供科学依据。本次研究得出以下重要结论：(1)通过SWAT敏感性分析,获知泗河流域径流模拟过程中比较敏感的参数：正常湿润情况下植被覆盖值、土壤蒸发补偿系数、土壤有效含水量等。经校准后的各参数范围如下：CN2(73～82)；ESCO=0.98；SOL AWC(0.04～0.2)； GW_REVAP=0.02；GWQMN=0；REVAPMN=1.(2)分析各气候情景下的流域年均径流的变化,可知泗河流域年均径流随着气温的升高而减少,但变幅较小,每增加1℃流域径流约减少1.8%；随着流域年均降雨量的增大而增大,年均降雨量每增加10%,其年径流约增加15.04%；随着流域年均降雨量的减少而减小,年均降雨量每减少10%,其年总径流减小约10.82%。可见年均降雨量是影响流域径流的重要因素,与气温变化结果相比,流域径流受降雨量影响大于气温变化。 (3)对比不同时期土地利用情况下的流域径流变化,得出如下结论：1980、1995和2000年三期土地利用情况下流域年均径流基本没区别,月尺度上的径流变化也非常小,同时径流的月际分布也较一致,因此,在1980～2000年之间泗河流域内土地利用变化对流域径流影响不明显。 对比不同气候情景和土地利用变化下的径流变化结果,本文最终得出的结论是气候是影响流域径流的主要因素,研究区该时间段内土地利用变化的影响没有气候因素影响明显。因此,在日后的泗河流域水资源管理中应注意气候变化趋势并采取相应的管理措施,以促进泗河流域水生态环境的健康可持续发展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the Sihe river basin is used as the study area, and SWAT is used to construct the watershed model. Through the sensitivity analysis and applicability evaluation of the model, the calibrated model is applied to the study of the land-water interaction in the Sihe River basin. The specific research ideas are as follows: first, setting up different climate change scenarios in the future to discuss the changing trend of runoff caused by climate change, that is, the relationship between climate change (mainly the change of temperature and rainfall) and hydrological response; The second is to compare and analyze the trend of runoff change in different periods of land use, that is, the relationship between land use change and hydrological response. On this basis, the impacts of climate factors and land use factors on runoff are compared and analyzed, and the hydrological cycle process and driving mechanism of river basin are studied, which provides scientific basis for the protection of water resources and ecological construction in Sihe River Basin. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) through SWAT sensitivity analysis, the more sensitive parameters of runoff simulation in Sihe River Basin are obtained, such as vegetation cover value under normal humid conditions, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, soil available water content and so on. The range of calibrated parameters is as follows: CN2 (73 / 82); ESCO=0.98;SOL AWC (0. 04 / 0. 2); GW_REVAP=0.02;GWQMN=0; REVAPMN=1. (2) shows that the annual runoff decreases with the increase of air temperature in Sihe River Basin, but the variation is small, and the annual runoff decreases by 1.8% with each increase of 1 鈩，

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