考虑分布参数依赖的风险混合不确定性分析方法

发布时间：2018-01-29 16:40

本文关键词： 风险评估混合不确定性蒙特卡罗证据理论模糊集理论　出处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2017年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在定量化风险评估中,针对变量分布参数存在依赖时的混合不确定性传播问题,提出一种考虑分布参数完全依赖、部分依赖以及独立传播情形的双层混合不确定性刻画与传播框架,内外层分布参数不确定性分别用概率分布与可能性分布刻画,采用蒙特卡罗模拟法与模糊扩展原则相结合的数值求解方法。针对认知不确定性分布参数依赖性,构建了统一的认知不确定性分布参数依赖性模型,并给出依赖性系数的概念。为实现认知不确定性分布参数独立性采样,设计了基于D-S证据理论与随机集相结合的不确定性传播算法,相比于概率刻画下的双层蒙特卡罗方法,计算代价有效降低。以某型氢氧发动机贮箱共底漏气率为算例,验证本文方法的有效性与可行性。
[Abstract]:In quantitative risk assessment, a new method is proposed to solve the problem of mixed uncertainty propagation when variable distribution parameters depend on each other. In the case of partial dependence and independent propagation, the two-layer mixed uncertainty characterization and propagation framework, the inner and outer layer distribution parameter uncertainty are described by probability distribution and probability distribution respectively. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method and fuzzy extended principle, a unified model of cognitive uncertainty distribution parameter dependence is constructed for the parameter dependence of cognitive uncertainty distribution. In order to realize the independent sampling of cognitive uncertainty distribution parameters, an uncertainty propagation algorithm based on D-S evidence theory and random set is designed. Compared with the double-layer Monte Carlo method under probability characterization, the computational cost is reduced effectively. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are verified by an example of air leakage rate in the common bottom of a hydrogen-oxygen engine tank.
【作者单位】：装备学院装备发展战略研究所;中国卫星海上测控部;
【分类号】：O211;V434
【正文快照】： 网络出版地址:kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2625.V.20170324.1604.008.html引用格式:段永胜,赵继广,陈鹏,等.考虑分布参数依赖的风险混合不确定性分析方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2017,43(12):2439-2448.DUAN Y S,ZHAO J G,CHEN P,et al.Analysis method for hybrid uncert

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