疾病传播动力学 的翻译结果

  本文关键词：疾病数学模型和传播动力学研究的流行病学意义，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

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预防医学与卫生学

疾病传播动力学

     A method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study

     疾病传播动力学研究中的流行模拟方法

短句来源

     Results: DecisionPro Markov model described the epidemic model visually.

     结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型。

短句来源

     Application of time-domain statistical analysis in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks

     时域统计分析在疾病传播动力学中的应用

短句来源

     New results in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks obtained by time-domain statistical analysis are presented.

     文章介绍了运用时域统计分析进行疾病传播动力学研究所得到的新结果.

短句来源

     Objective:To develop a method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study.

     目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。

短句来源

     Epidemiological significance of studies on mathematical model and transmission dynamics of diseases.

     疾病数学模型和传播动力学研究的流行病学意义

短句来源

     A method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study

     疾病传播动力学研究中的流行模拟方法

短句来源

     Application of time-domain statistical analysis in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks

     时域统计分析在疾病传播动力学中的应用

短句来源

     Sexually transmitted diseases in children

     儿童性传播疾病

短句来源

     Mathematical model and transmission dynamics of malaria.

     疟疾数学模型和传播动力学

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  disease transmission dynamics

This article introduces an age-structured epidemiological model for the disease transmission dynamics of hepatitis?C.

Furthermore, we stress the value and importance of understanding the epidemiologic control points that drive infectious disease transmission dynamics.

Objective To further understend the difference of transmission dynamics among three mosquito born diseases,dengue fever,malaria and filariasis and is relation with control effect. Methods By the mathematic model the quantitative dynamics analysis and comparison among the three diseases were carried out. Results The transmission velocity(i.e.vectorial capacity,VC)and epidemic velocity(EV)of dengue fever is the most high-speed but its transmission potential(i.e.basic reproduction rate,BRR)is lower and the...

Objective To further understend the difference of transmission dynamics among three mosquito born diseases,dengue fever,malaria and filariasis and is relation with control effect. Methods By the mathematic model the quantitative dynamics analysis and comparison among the three diseases were carried out. Results The transmission velocity(i.e.vectorial capacity,VC)and epidemic velocity(EV)of dengue fever is the most high-speed but its transmission potential(i.e.basic reproduction rate,BRR)is lower and the man-biting rate needed for maintain the lowest transmission is higher which suggested that it is easier to control its transmission by reducing the mosquito population;The transmission and epidemic velocity of malaria is slight lower than that of dengue fever,but its transmission potential is much high than that of dengue fever,and its critical man-biting rate is also very low which indicated that it is not only easy to cause the endemicity also the epidemicity,but also hard to control its transmission and it is necessary to take integrated control measured;The transmission and epidemic velocity of filariasis is very low and its transmission potential is also very low so it is possible to control even interrupt its transmission only by single mesures aiming the infection source. Conclusion There are evident differences in transmission dynamics among the three mosquito born diseases which is the fundumental reason of frming different epidemic characterestic and of leading to variant control effects among the three diseases.

目的　为进一步了解登革热、疟疾和丝虫病三种蚊传疾病在传播动力学上的差异及其与防治效应的关系。方法　通过数学模型 ,对三种疾病的传播动力学进行定量分析和比较。结果　登革热的传播速率 (即媒介能量 )和流行速率最高 ,但传播潜能 (即基本繁殖率 )较低 ,维持最低传播所需的叮人率 (即临界叮人率 )也较高 ,提示通过降低蚊群数量即有可能较容易地达到控制传播的目的 ;疟疾的传播和流行速率略低于登革热 ,但传播潜能比登革热高得多 ,临界叮人率也很低 ,表明疟疾不但容易引发地方性流行和暴发性流行 ,而且较难以控制和消灭 ,必须采取严密的综合性防治措施 ;丝虫病的传播速率和流行速率非常慢 ,传播潜能也非常低 ,提示有可能通过单一的控制传染源措施 ,容易地控制甚至阻断其传播。结论　三种蚊传疾病在传播动力学上存在明显的差异 ,这是导致三种疾病不同的流行病学特征和不同的防治效应的根本原因

New results in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks obtained by time-domain statistical analysis are presented. Once the parameters of the time-domain statistical distributions for the incubation period and active period of an epidemic disease are given, the dynamics of the disease outbreak in a closed system with given infection probability can be completely determined by solving stochastic differential-integrative equations. Calculation shows that, after a long enough time, the final infection rate of the system...

New results in the dynamics of epidemic outbreaks obtained by time-domain statistical analysis are presented. Once the parameters of the time-domain statistical distributions for the incubation period and active period of an epidemic disease are given, the dynamics of the disease outbreak in a closed system with given infection probability can be completely determined by solving stochastic differential-integrative equations. Calculation shows that, after a long enough time, the final infection rate of the system is determined by the index T2 = cNt2 , where is the infection probability of individuals in the system, N the number of individuals, and t2 the average length of the active period of the disease. If τ2 > 3, the final infection rate of the system may reach 100% , so τ2 can also be called the risk index. In the early days of the epidemic, the oscillatory and intermittent behavior of the new-active rate is determined by another index, τ1 =cNt1 where t1 is the average length of the incubation period. This theory overcomes the drawback of the SIR model which does nottake sufficient account of the time-domain statistics, and can provide a better theoretical prediction for the infection dynamics in a closed system.

文章介绍了运用时域统计分析进行疾病传播动力学研究所得到的新结果.在给定某一类疾病的潜伏期和活动期的时域统计分布参数后,该疾病在具有一定感染几率的封闭系统中的传播动力学过程即可通过求解概率微分积分方程来决定.计算结果表明,在经过长时间传播后,该系统的最终被感染率由指数τ2=cNt2决定,这里c是系统内个体的接触感染几率,Ⅳ是系统所包含的个体数量,t2是疾病活动期的平均时间长度.如果τ2>3,则该系统的最终被感染率可达到100％,因此τ2又称为疾病传播的危险指数.而在疾病传播的初期,新发病例所出现的振荡和间歇行为则由另一个指数τ1=cNt1决定,这里t1是平均潜伏期的长度.这一理论较好地弥补了以往常用的SIR模型对时域统计考虑不足的缺陷,从而对疾病在封闭系统中的传播动力学过程给出理论预测.

Objective:To develop a method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study. Methods: Markov model in software Vanguard DecisionPro based on transmission dynamics model was used to mimic epidemic. As an example, epidemic simulation and abstract study of epidemic model of SARS in Beijing were done to illustrate its application. Results: DecisionPro Markov model described the epidemic model visually. In the Markov model, values of parameters were modified easily by programming method. Real-time change...

Objective:To develop a method for simulating epidemic in transmission dynamics study. Methods: Markov model in software Vanguard DecisionPro based on transmission dynamics model was used to mimic epidemic. As an example, epidemic simulation and abstract study of epidemic model of SARS in Beijing were done to illustrate its application. Results: DecisionPro Markov model described the epidemic model visually. In the Markov model, values of parameters were modified easily by programming method. Real-time change of state variables was observed, which could predict the trend of epidemic. By sensitive analysis, we were able to study the interaction between model variables and by scenario method, we could evaluate impacts of value changes of input variables on epidemic quantitatively. It was found that our method was an appropriate method for epidemic simulation research and could be used to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures. Conclusion: DecisionPro Markov model is ideal in epidemic simulation and can be used to make an abstract study of transmission dynamics model.

目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Van guard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用。结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型。在Markov模型中,各模型参数取值可以随时调整,并可通过编程实现;可以观察模型状态变量的实时变化,预测疾病的流行趋势;通过敏感性分析功能,可以研究模型变量之间相互作用的规律;通过想定研究方法,可以定量评价输入参数变化对流行的影响。实例研究发现,该方法很适合流行模拟研究,可以用于干预措施效果的定量评价。结论:DecisionPro Markov模型方法是一种较为理想的模拟疾病流行的方法,可以用于传播动力学模型的抽象研究。

  本文关键词：疾病数学模型和传播动力学研究的流行病学意义，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。