基于DEA-Malmquist指数的云南省城镇化效率研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 14:08

本文选题：城镇化效率　切入点：指标体系　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化进程是各国现代化的重要标志。全面建成小康社会是中国政府的宏伟目标,城镇化问题必须引起政府的关注。城镇化是当地经济和社会发展的核心动力之一,城市化发展质量一定程度上制约区域经济和社会的可持续发展。以城镇人口增加、城镇数量增长、城镇规模扩大、城镇空间外延为特征的外延式城镇化主要是由以高投入、高排放、高污染为特征的粗放型经济发展方式导致的,这种外延式城镇化发展模式带来都市人口拥挤、城市交通堵塞、环境污染等一系列城市发展难题,外延式城镇化忽视城镇化的发展质量。十八大报告明确提出要提高城镇化发展质量,而提高城镇化发展质量的前提和基础是提高城镇化效率。因此,研究云南省城镇化效率在理论和现实方面都有重大价值。本文利用数据包络分析方法DEA模型和Malmquist指数,以云南省2007年至2014年16个州市的城镇化投入产出数据为分析元素,对云南省城镇化效率进行测算研究。将DEA静态效率评价和Malmquist动态效率评价相结合,得到云南省16个州市城镇化效率横向变化趋势以及纵向变化趋势,进而分析不同州市效率差距的原因。研究结果显示:从DEA模型看,云南省16个州市城镇化技术效率差距较大,核心原因在于各州市纯技术效率的差异。各州市技术效率表现出与纯技术效率相似的走势,规模效率基本上都维持在0.95以上,规模效率接近最优值。云南省各州市后期城镇化技术效率提升的主要途径是提高纯技术效率,纯技术效率还有较大的提高空间,规模效率提升的空间相对有限。从2014年投入产出投影分析表看,2014年云南省各州市城镇化技术效率非DEA有效的原因是投入冗余和产出不足共同造成的。从Malmquist指数看,云南省16个州市全要素生产效率指数差异较大,主要原因在于各州市技术进步指数差距较大。各州市技术进步指数表现出与全要素生产率指数相似的走势,技术效率指数基本上都稳定在1.00左右。2007-2014年云南省各州市全要素生产率增长的主要原因在于技术进步指数。在研究结论基础上,提出了提高云南省城镇化效率的建议。
[Abstract]:The process of urbanization is an important symbol of the modernization of all countries. It is the great goal of the Chinese government to build a well-off society in an all-round way, and the urbanization problem must attract the attention of the government. Urbanization is one of the core driving forces of local economic and social development. The development quality of urbanization restricts the sustainable development of regional economy and society to a certain extent. The epitaxial urbanization, characterized by the increase of urban population, the increase of urban quantity, the expansion of urban scale and the extension of urban space, is mainly characterized by high investment. The extensive mode of economic development characterized by high emissions and high pollution has led to a series of urban development problems such as urban population congestion, urban traffic congestion, environmental pollution and so on. The development quality of urbanization is ignored by the extension urbanization. The 18 report clearly proposes to improve the development quality of urbanization, and the premise and foundation of improving the development quality of urbanization is to improve the efficiency of urbanization. The study of urbanization efficiency in Yunnan Province is of great value in both theory and practice. In this paper, the data envelopment analysis method DEA model and Malmquist index are used to analyze the input-output data of 16 cities in Yunnan province from 2007 to 2014. By combining DEA static efficiency evaluation with Malmquist dynamic efficiency evaluation, the horizontal and vertical trends of urbanization efficiency in 16 cities of Yunnan Province are obtained. The results show that, according to the DEA model, the technical efficiency gap of urbanization in 16 cities of Yunnan Province is quite large. The core reason lies in the difference of pure technical efficiency in each city. The technical efficiency of each city shows a trend similar to that of pure technical efficiency, and the scale efficiency is basically above 0.95. The scale efficiency is close to the optimal value. The main way to improve the technical efficiency of urbanization in the later stage of the urbanization in Yunnan Province is to improve the pure technical efficiency, and there is still much room for improvement in the pure technical efficiency. The space for improving scale efficiency is relatively limited. According to the input-output projection analysis table of 2014, the reason why the technical efficiency of urbanization in various cities of Yunnan Province was not effective in DEA on 2014 was caused by the combination of input redundancy and insufficient output. According to the Malmquist index, There is a great difference in total factor productivity index in 16 cities of Yunnan province, the main reason is that there is a big difference in technological progress index in each city. The technological progress index of each city shows a trend similar to that of total factor productivity index. The technical efficiency index is basically stable at about 1.00. The main reason for the total factor productivity growth in the cities of Yunnan Province from 2007 to 2014 is the technological progress index. On the basis of the research conclusions, some suggestions for improving the efficiency of urbanization in Yunnan Province are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F299.27

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